Today’s video:
Good Thursday morning everyone! A rather substantial swath of heavier rain and embedded storms is affecting the eastern portions of KS, far southeastern NE, and far western MO as of 9:35am CDT. Western MO will work in more of this activity through the remainder of the morning into the early afternoon hours.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the region today, with a bigger emphasis across northeastern KS and northwestern MO. Ongoing morning convection will clear the area over the next few hours, allowing for some destabilization in the atmosphere to occur and the development of storms during the late afternoon and evening hours. While this is not expected to be a widespread event, all modes of severe weather are possible.
Simulated radar through 4pm CDT Friday: A drier/more stable airmass lays ahead of this swath of rain in central and eastern MO. This will allow it to gradually subside in intensity as it treks through western and central MO this afternoon, possibly reaching as far as eastern MO this evening. Another complex of showers and storms is expected to ignite from north-central KS to northwestern MO and southeastern NE, mainly after 6pm CDT. During the evening and overnight hours, this new complex will push eastward across southern IA and northern MO with more isolated development possible in southern KS/MO and northern IA. A couple isolated strong storms are possible in NE. By 7am CDT Friday, most activity will have since pushed out of IA or about to with some lingering showers and storms across eastern MO. A majority of the region will be dry with only isolated patches of rain persisting by the end of this loop (4pm CDT).
Areas further east into eastern IA and northeastern MO are under threat for strong to severe thunderstorms as the frontal boundary lifts into the area Friday evening into the early overnight hours. All modes of severe weather are once again at play.
Simulated radar from 4pm CDT Friday through 1pm CDT Saturday: Convection early Friday afternoon will push into the OHV, leaving room for some destabilization across eastern IA and northern MO. This is the area in particular we are watching for strong/severe storm development Friday evening into the early overnight. A stripe of storms may dip southward into central and eastern MO Friday night into Saturday morning before dissipating.
Total rainfall through 1pm CDT Saturday: Some of the rainfall totals in central KS can be shaved off as a majority of these rains fell with this morning’s convection. While this model is likely overdone across northern/northeastern MO, 1-3″ rainfall potential exists across northeast MO through this timeframe. Not everyone depicted with rains below will see rainfall given the scattered nature of these storms.
The European Model for the next 7 days has become substantially wetter across IA, northern MO, and eastern KS compared to yesterday’s run. This highlights the active pattern this part of the Central Plains will likely experience over the coming week, though it may be a bit broad brushed.
High temperatures over the next four days: Warmth spreads northward across the Western Plains today. Southerly winds will pump additional warmth and humidity into the region Friday through the weekend. Highs in the 90s are to be expected across KS and MO after today. Heat indices are likely to approach 100ºF during this timeframe in these areas.
Low temperatures over the next four days: 70ºF+ lows will become prevalent across the region heading into the weekend and early next week.
Dew points over the next four days: Humidity continues to surge northward today with a gradual eastward expansion expected Friday. Dew points will likely exceed 70ºF over many areas Friday through Sunday.
Wind forecast over the next four days:
Here’s a look at temperatures and wind speeds for Des Moines, Jefferson City, Lincoln and Salina over the next 10 days:
Weeks 1 and 2 temperatures from normal:
Weeks 1 and 2 precipitation from normal:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!