Good Tuesday evening!
A current check on radar shows that we are seeing the leftover remnants of our storm cluster work into AR leaving behind some lighter rains in South Central/ SE MO :
A look at modeled upper level energy from 1 AM CT Wed morning until 1 AM CT Thursday morning. We can see that during this timeframe, the majority of the stronger energy (darker reds) stays situated over the N sections of the state. There are certainly going to be other areas of the state that see showers and storms during this time, but this is where we are expecting the best shot at higher precip totals and severe weather. There can be strong to severe storms tomorrow, the main focus will be damaging winds and heavier rainfall amounts:
We could be looking at another cluster of precip similar to today’s cluster. This round of precip may not be as robust and as strong as today’s, but we still think there can be stronger storms and overall the same locations look to be impacted. Below is simulated radar from 1 AM CT Wednesday morning until 7 PM CT Wednesday evening. We see the cluster start out in N MO and very gradually weaken as it gets to the Mississippi River. We also think the Central/ E part of MO is where we see that potential again for the cluster to take more of a southward dive. This model may be a little overdone on the coverage during the day, but agree with the thought that the heaviest of activity comes in the morning in N MO and then we see more scattered activity throughout the day:
High temperatures tomorrow look to be in low 80s for the northern third of the state with the southern 2/3 of MO looking at highs in the upper 80s/ low 90s. We think this model is a touch too cool in N MO:
Precipitation guidance out through 7 PM CT Wednesday evening. Two areas we want to discuss in particular are the circled areas. We think that the round of precip tomorrow will bring the best shot of heaviest rains across the state to the area circled in red. This model sees that thought as well, but we think this heavier precip of 1 to 2+ inches can be extended a little further east. We also think the area in black is a little overdone as this is including the rain that has fell/ is falling on radar right now. The main idea from this image is that we look to see some pretty scattered activity across much of the state for tomorrow:
Please reach out to us at [email protected] with any questions you have! Have a great rest of your Tuesday!