Good Monday evening!
A current look at radar shows that we are dry minus a very stray shower in W Central MN:
As we work into the overnight/ Tue, we are watching two areas for the potential to see some showers and storms. The first (area in green) is N/ Central MN where we will see a cold front work its way across the state tonight and into tomorrow. The northern parts of the circle state look to see the strongest storms and this should come in the overnight hours tonight. Data is suggesting that as this front drags across MN and works into E Cental MN, we will really see weakening during the day. This area is deceiving because there will be precipitation in this circle, but it is not going to be something widespread that covers this entire area. The other part of the state we are watching for precip is far S MN (yellow circle). There looks to be a pretty strong cluster of storms that is going to be in N IA and work S, but we cannot rule out something sneaking into the far S couple counties of MN.
A look at current favored simulated radar from 1 AM CT Tue morning until Noon CT. This model may be too overdone in intensity for the front in N MN, but we think the timing aligns with our thoughts. We also want to mention that it is not certain that S MN will see from this cluster in IA. We think the overwhelming majority of precip will stay in IA, but we cant completely rule out a shower or storm sneaking North of the IA/MN border:
Favored simulated radar from 1 PM CT until 7 PM CT. As this cold front continues to sink south, we think that there can be a little more coverage on radar during the afternoon vs what this model is showing. This would more likely be a broken line that is definitely not going to be an all day rain as we are just watching a front move though:
A look at precip guidance out through 7 PM CT Tue. We think the area circled in black could see more than the precip being modeled. This would more likely come in the late morning/afternoon hours of tomorrow that is associated with our cold front. We also think that totals could be slightly overdone in S MN associated with our cluster in IA. Any of the S MN rainfall will ultimately depend on where we see those storms fire in IA, and if any can slide just a little further North into MN. As always, this image is not meant to be specific to your county, but rather to give an idea about generalized rainfalls and to discuss areas we could see more/less rain:
Please do note hesitate to reach out to us at [email protected] if you have any questions! Enjoy the rest of your evening!