Good afternoon everyone! A large swath of rain in association with our storm system currently stretches from eastern KS/southwest MO northward through eastern NE and very far western IA as of 1pm CDT. More scattered heavier showers and storms can be found across portions of SD. This heavy band of rain will continue to drift eastward through the remainder of the afternoon, evening, and nighttime hours.
We are currently watching the threat for some strong to severe thunderstorms across far southeast KS into southern MO late this afternoon through the evening hours. Morning convection draped across the area will likely limit anything substantial but a narrow window of clearing and daytime heating in southeast KS/far southwestern MO later this afternoon could destabilize the atmosphere enough to produce a broken line of strong thunderstorms that eventually lift into southern MO. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main threats with these storms, though an isolated tornado or two are possible.
Central Plains simulated radar through 10am CDT Monday: The expansive area of rain will continue to lift in a northeast trajectory with the low pressure system, lifting further into western/central MO. During this progression rain coverage will likely lessen as the main band weakens across central MO. Heavier, more persistent rains will continue across eastern NE through the remainder of the afternoon, evening, and overnight hours. More of western IA will be impacted by this large swath of rain over the next several hours, remaining in the area through the rest of the day and night. Scattered areas of showers and storms will continue to drop southeastward out of western SD and progress further through western NE. Eventually central NE will likely receive some of this scattered convection. Enough destabilization in far southeastern KS and southwestern MO will allow a broken line of strong thunderstorms to develop, mainly after 4pm CDT, and push east through the remainder of central/southern MO during the overnight hours. By 10am CDT (end of this loop), scattered wrap-around rains will likely be persisting across northern/western IA, eastern NE, northeastern KS, and far northwestern MO.
Northern Plains simulated radar through 10am CDT Monday: Morning convection across SD and west-central MN is expected to gradually lift eastward through the remainder of today, affecting southern MN with showers and storms after 4pm CDT. Areas of showers and storms are expected still across central and eastern SD this evening. Rains will exit the area from west to east with only eastern SD still having shower and storm risks during the overnight hours. By 10am CDT (end of this loop), most convection should have since exited SD with some scattered showers and storms persisting across southern and eastern MN.
Total rainfall through 10am CDT Monday for the Central Plains is shown below. Locally heavy rains are expected to continue across portions of the Central Plains today into tonight. Areas under persistent rain bands/heavy storms may observe flash flooding. There is near unanimous model agreement that areas with the encircled region receive a large dose of rain through this timespan. While the modeled total accumulated precipitation is likely overdone in this region, there is a risk for higher totals than what is stated below. A few very isolated locations in this region may receive several inches of rain. This area could also fluctuate in location (25-50 miles in any direction from what is modeled). Totals along the far western edge of this precipitation map across portions of central KS/NE are overdone as most rains have exited this area.
Total rainfall through 10am CDT Monday for the Northern Plains is shown below. Locally heavy rains are expected across portions of SD and southwestern MN through this timespan. Please note that rainfall totals just south of Fargo, ND into central MN are overdone and that lighter rains are expected in this area at this point. Areas under persistent heavier showers and storms may observe flash flooding, though the greatest risk remains to the south in the Central Plains. Where it storms, a quick 0.5-1″+ of rain is expected.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your day!