Good Sunday morning everyone! Many are waking up to quite a soggy morning across central NE and KS as a shield of heavy rain (remnants of last night’s storms in the High Plains) is slowly lifting northeastward through the region. Shown below is a radar loop for the region as of 6:45am CDT. Expect this heavy dose of rain to continue on a northeast trajectory through the remainder of the day. Additional details regarding this system are discussed below.
We are tracking the threat for some strong to severe storms today, mainly on the southern periphery of this morning’s convection across southeast KS into southwest MO. This morning convection will likely inhibit much in the way of severe weather north of these areas, but enough ingredients may come together this afternoon and evening in the circled region below for some scattered strong thunderstorms.
Here are some timestamps for the location of this rain shield through the rest of the day: Morning convection will continue along an existing boundary in place across central KS and NE while progressing northeastward through the morning and afternoon hours across the eastern halves of NE and KS. Some isolated showers and storms may wrap around the western side of this area of heavy rain in western KS and NE. By around 12pm CDT, the far eastern edge of this band of showers and storms will begin to make its way into the far western portions of MO and southwest IA. Heavier rains will likely progress into these areas during the mid-afternoon hours and continuing through the evening, though rains are likely to become more scattered across portions of southwest MO.
Here’s the HRRR simulated radar where the timestamps were taken from, which runs through 1opm CDT this evening.
NAM3km simulated radar from 10pm CDT this evening through 7am CDT Tuesday: Rains will begin to wrap more around the low pressure system as it tracks northeastward through northeast KS into southwest IA tonight into tomorrow morning. Convection will be ongoing across portions of eastern NE into IA during the morning hours Monday with scattered storms draped ahead of the cold front across eastern MO. Additional lighter rains wrapping around the surface low could impact northeast KS, northwest MO Monday morning into the afternoon hours as well. During the late afternoon and evening hours Monday, a narrow, broken line of storms will develop across eastern MO with some of those storms becoming strong to perhaps severe. A much weaker disturbance will also push into western NE late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Total rainfall through 7am CDT Monday is shown below. Locally heavy rains are expected across portions of the Central Plains today into tonight. Areas under persistent rain bands/storms may observe flash flooding.
Here’s the ICON Model’s forecasted rainfall through the next 7 days: Please take into account that a large amount of the rains it is depicting in western KS has already fallen. Models have also trended quite wetter across the state of IA since yesterday with many high-resolution models dumping widespread rains across southwest IA from now through the day Monday. A good 1-2″ of rain will fall across portions of the Central Plains with locally higher amounts in locations discussed above. There could be a few voids in rainfall this week across portions MO and western NE.
High temperatures over the next four days: A cooler day is in store for today and tomorrow for a majority of the region as rains hinder temperatures. Highs will generally stay in the upper 70s to mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday, though some warmth from the Southern Plains will try to bleed into the far southern portions of our area.
Low temperatures over the next four days: Lows will drop into the 40s and 50s across the Western Plains Monday and Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, lows likely will stay in the 60s.
Dew points over the next four days: Humidity levels drop drastically as the cold front passes through the region over the next couple of days, especially the High Plains. As high pressure settles in behind the storm system, humidity will begin to increase along its western edge (Western Plains).
Wind guidance over the next four days: Winds increase behind the cold front today across the High Plains. By Tuesday, winds will have subsided as high pressure takes over the pattern.
Here’s a look at temperatures and wind speeds for Des Moines, IA / Jefferson City, MO / Lincoln, NE / Salina, KS for the next 10 days.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!