Good Saturday morning everyone! A majority of the region remains quiet as of 8am CDT with just a few stray showers clipping the far northern portions of the region along the US/Canadian border. These showers will continue to lift eastward through the remainder of the morning. The bigger story will be the development of stronger storms this afternoon and evening along and ahead of an approaching cold front. Additional details are discussed in the Severe Storm Outlook provided below.
HRRR simulated radar through 9pm MDT this evening. New development in the form of showers and storms is expected between 12-3pm MDT ahead of morning convection working eastward across MT and WY. By this time, the disturbance should be far enough east that they fire in far western SD while working eastward through the late afternoon and evening hours. Further north into ND, additional scattered showers and storms are likely a few hours later with the same general progression eastward. By the end of this loop (9pm MDT), a possible cluster of showers/storms will likely be located within central SD with scattered convection across central ND. If the storms can congeal into a cluster across SD this evening, the main threat will be damaging winds.
NAM3km simulated radar from 9pm MDT this evening through 6am MDT Monday: Storms across central SD late this evening will begin to weaken as they migrate eastward into eastern SD while shower/storm activity persists across portions of ND through the nighttime hours. Wrap-around rains will likely funnel back into western SD/southwestern ND late tonight into the morning hours Sunday. These rains will lose their general intensity as they progress eastward across central SD Sunday afternoon and evening. Elsewhere, areas of showers and storms will continue to push eastward from eastern SD/ND into western MN Sunday morning then across the majority of MN Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Rains will begin to clear out of the Dakotas by 6am MDT Monday. It is important to note that some model guidance (such as the NAM3km) is suggesting more rainfall across portions of northern MN with this event than before.
Here’s a look at total rainfall through 12pm MDT Sunday. Due to some differing high-resolution solutions Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, I have opted out of showing rainfall accumulations past 12pm MDT Sunday. A general 0.1″ on the lighter side to 1″ of rain on the heavier side is expected across a majority of the Dakotas (excluding northwest ND) into portions of western MN. Areas that receive the heaviest storms may pick up 1-2″ of rain. Please remember that this is only a model solution and that rainfall will likely differ from what’s shown.
Additional smaller waves of showers and storms are likely to work into the region during the work week. The first will likely only bring lighter rains across mainly SD Tuesday morning/afternoon. Another area that will need closer attention will be later this week as the Euro suggests an upper-level low digs into the region, providing shower and storm risks to the area. The GFS isn’t too keen on this idea so details will need to be worked out as the event nears.
Total rainfall over the next 7 days from both the GFS and Euro are shown below. The majority of SD has a good shot at decent rains through this period with lighter rains expected across ND. Both models differ from each other in their solution for northern MN. As stated before, the Euro brings in another upper-level low late week that provides rains to the state while the GFS holds back on this. Due to these circumstances, confidence remains low across northern MN.
Another warm day is on tap across the Dakotas into far northwestern MN with high temperatures ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s. As the frontal boundary passes later this weekend, these temperatures will drop with highs only making it into the upper 70s for most across the region. Lows will likely drop into the 40s across the Dakotas Sunday and Monday night.
Here’s a look at dew points over the next four days: Humidity levels will drop quite drastically behind the frontal boundary beginning Sunday and especially into early work week.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days: Winds will increase along the approaching frontal boundary through the weekend before subsiding somewhat as high pressure builds into the region early work week.
Here’s a look at the city charts for Minneapolis, MN, Bismarck, ND, Fargo, ND and Sioux Falls, SD for the next 10 days.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!