Good Saturday morning everyone! We are watching the threat for some strong thunderstorms today across the High Plains as another upper-level low digs into the region. A surface cold front will accompany this low and track into the Western Plains late today as well. Scattered showers and storms, possibly strong to perhaps severe, will develop along and out ahead of this frontal boundary in far southeastern WY and eastern CO, tracking first into the Nebraska Panhandle then eventually far western KS. Some additional details are provided below. The severe weather threat will likely dwindle through the nighttime hours tonight.
HRRR simulated radar through 9pm MDT this evening is shown below. A few persisting showers and storms this morning across west-central KS will likely persist through the remainder of the morning while gradually drifting eastward into the afternoon hours. Scattered strong storms will lift into western NE between 2-4pm MDT this afternoon and after 6pm MDT across the CO/KS border. As noted by the SPC, due to a linear forcing mechanism in the region, storm development will likely congeal into multiple clusters stretching from SD southward into western KS this evening. This will ultimately mean that by evening the biggest threat with these storms will be damaging winds, though hail and/or an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
During the late evening hours showers and storms will begin to weaken across western/central NE with heavier showers and storms likely continuing across western KS by 12am MDT tonight. Convection will lift northeastward through the overnight hours tonight across central KS into southern NE. This trend will persist during the morning Sunday as showers and storms overspread a large chunk of NE and eastern KS with some wrap-around showers and storms likely in western NE. Areas of showers and heavier storms will lift further east through the rest of the day Sunday, with western MO and western IA eventually working in some of this energy. The severe weather threat won’t be as high as today, but a few storms may produce locally strong winds and small hail.
Widespread showers and storms will spread eastward Sunday evening through early Monday morning as the frontal boundary progresses across the Central Plains. Eventually the remainder of our eastern areas may receive some beneficial rains during this timespan. The NAM3km (shown below from 6pm MDT Sunday through 6am MDT Monday) shows areas of showers and storms wrapping around the low pressure system across eastern KS/NE into portions of IA and MO. Lingering showers and storms may continue across western NE/KS before lifting east out of the region Sunday night.
Here’s a look at total rainfall through 12pm MDT Sunday: A general 0.1-0.5″ of rain is likely with localized pockets of 1-2″+ of rain where the heaviest storms track, especially in western NE/KS, with rainfall totals dropping off the further east you go. Scattered showers and storms will eventually spread into IA and MO after this timeframe as discussed above.
There is quite a bit of model disagreement on where the heaviest rains will setup over the next 7 days (European Model shown below). Rainfall amounts are likely overdone/too broad brushed across NE and KS and convective feedback issues are likely skewing rainfall totals too high across portions of southern and eastern IA. Regardless, a general 0.5-1.5″ of rain is expected across a large chunk of the Central Plains with this incoming storm system through Monday. There could be a few voids in rainfall across portions of IA and northwest MO. Model uncertainty regarding rainfall remains high so confidence is low at this time.
High temperatures over the next four days: Warmth continues today across the region with most in the 80s to low 90s. Cooler shots of air will arrive beginning tomorrow as an upper-level low with an accompanying cold front digs into the region.
Low temperatures over the next four days: Lows will drop into the 50s and possibly the upper 40s early work week.
Dew points over the next four days: Humidity levels will drop as the cold front passes through the region late Sunday through Tuesday.
Wind guidance over the next four days: Winds will pick up behind the approaching cold front late this weekend into early work week.
Here’s a look at temperatures and wind speeds for Des Moines, IA, Jefferson City, MO, Lincoln, NE and Salina, KS for the next 10 days.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!