8-14-18 Northern Plains: Timing out storm risks today and into tomorrow. B.

Today’s Video: 

Good Tuesday morning everyone! We have light showers ongoing in the Western Dakotas this morning while a cluster of storms is working through Central Minnesota. These storms likely continue to slowly pushes SE throughout the morning hours, continuing into mid-day. Wouldn’t rule out an additional 0.5-1.0″ under these storms that move slowly ESE.

Pop-up storms likely develop this afternoon in the southern half of Minnesota where some instability will build this afternoon. Some storms can also develop in Eastern South Dakota. 

As we work into the late evening and overnight hours, the pop up storms will begin to subside and an upper-level low will develop storms in Western South Dakota overnight. These will develop into a storm cluster and push to the east overnight and into tomorrow. It still appears that the southern portions of the state have the highest risk for heavy rainfall, with areas to the north missing out: 

These will weaken into tomorrow afternoon, but additional development is possible late tomorrow into the overnight hours in SE SD. 

Here’s a look at total rain into Thursday afternoon: 

Much of Thursday and Friday should be quieter, but as we head into the weekend, another frontal boundary and possible upper-level low could provide more storm chances. Big differences remain between the GFS/Euro for this weekend, with the Euro being further north and wetter in South Dakota. The GFS clips SW and South-Central South Dakota with a storm cluster Saturday into Sunday. Leaning towards the slightly further south solution, though the GFS is likely a bit overdone with frontal rain in North Dakota and Minnesota: 

Here’s a look at temperatures over the next 4 days: 

Here’s a look at dew point over the next 4 days: 

Here’s a look at winds over the next 4 days: 

Here’s a look at city charts for Pierre, Minneapolis, Minot and Fargo: 

If you have any questions, do not hesitate to reach out via [email protected]! Have a great day!