Good morning everyone! Not much has changed from yesterday as plentiful sunshine remains draped across the region. Areas of smoke originating from West Canadian wildfires are expected to continue across the eastern Dakotas into MN today.
Another day of potential record highs is on tap today across the Dakotas where widespread upper 90s to mid 100s for highs will continue. A cold front will approach from the northwest during the day Monday, dropping temperatures behind it for Monday and especially for Tuesday in the region. Overnight lows will drop drastically behind the front in ND and and northern MN for Monday night/Tuesday morning. The NAM-WRF shown below for Monday night is likely overdone on the cool morning but a few locations may drop into the 40s.
As is the case from yesterday, very dry air conditions will persist in the Dakotas today. With wind gusts possibly exceeding 30mph at times, there is an increased risk for fire danger. Red Flag Warnings have been hoisted for today across the Western Dakotas due to the low relative humidity and strong winds. Air quality alerts continue to cover the whole state of MN (not shown in the second graphic below). Please limit your time outdoors to protect yourself from the poor air quality. While not as large of a threat heading into tomorrow, low humidity and strong winds will continue fire danger in the Dakotas. Heat Advisories are also in effect across western ND today for the significant heat.
The next slight chance for rain will come this evening/tonight across western ND. These rain chances come in association with the cold front lifting out of MT. With recent dryness in the area, I remain skeptical on the coverage of showers as rain likely will have a difficult time reaching the ground before evaporating. The HRRR model (not shown) is a tad more aggressive with shower activity in these parts, so I have to leave a slight chance for showers tonight in western ND. NAM3km simulated radar through 6am MDT Monday is shown below.
Showers and storms will begin to expand in coverage slightly (~20%) Monday morning across the western Dakotas while gradually lifting southeastward into the rest of ND and northern SD through the day Monday. Shower chances increase for northwest MN Monday evening as this convection works eastward across the region. Overnight Monday into Tuesday morning, the front will sag southward into SD and west-central MN, bringing the risk for isolated storms to the area during this timeframe.
Rainfall will remain very limited through 7am CDT Tuesday. A few localized pockets up to 0.25″ of rain are possible but a vast majority will stay dry as showers/storms will struggle to materialize.
Here’s a look at total rainfall from the European Model over the next 7 days: Decent rains will be hard to come by still for most this upcoming week as the frontal boundary crossing the Northern Plains early week looks to be moisture-starved. As disturbances approach southern SD and maybe far southern MN they may be able to tap into some moisture from the south, but confidence remains low on this setup. The best chance for rains will be for southern SD, though they will be scattered.
Here’s a look at dew points over the next four days: A continued stark contrast between the western Dakotas and the eastern Dakotas/MN can be noted through Monday. Humidity levels will be quite low across the western Dakotas, especially behind the cold front, while humidity will remain elevated to the south and east of the boundary.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days: Winds will begin to subside across the region Tuesday.
Here are some city charts regarding temperatures, precipitation and winds over the next 10 days for select cities across the Northern Plains. The front will bring some short-term relief before additional warmth builds into the region next weekend.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!