Good Sunday afternoon!
A current look at radar across the Dakota’s shows that we are pretty much dry with only some extremely isolated showers in the middle of the states:
As we go later into the afternoon, we think that we can see some storms start to spark in the western portions of the states. We think that the strongest storms will be in the western third of ND/SD, and we will see more widespread coverage as we go into the overnight hours. Below is simulated radar from 4 PM CT this afternoon until 7 AM CT tomorrow morning. The further E you go, the less likely you are to see the heaviest of rains:
Here is a look at upper level energy for the overnight hours (1 AM CT Mon). We can see that the strongest values (darker yellows/reds/ purples) are being observed in the central part of the states. We think the best shot at precip comes in the PM/ evening hours for the W third of the Dakotas, overnight/ early morning for the central third, and late morning/ early PM hours for the eastern third:
Highs tomorrow look to be in the low to mid 80s for much of SD, while ND looks to have a decent temperature gradient for highs. NE ND could see highs in the mid 60s, while Southern parts of ND will likely see temps closer to the lower 80s:
We think this precip can linger into the PM hours, mainly in the E portions of the states, most notably E ND. Some data is hinting at some precip to work into NW ND, but we are not seeing high values of upper level energy that would make this extremely likely at this point. Below is simulated rdar from Noon CT tomorrow until 5 PM CT Monday evening:
A look at rainfall guidance out through 7 PM CT Monday evening.The areas circled in black are two areas where we could see more precipitation than what this model is depicting. The area in W SD looks to be more scattered, but we think there is a chance that there is more activity in this area vs. what is being shown. We also think the area in S ND could see higher rainfall amounts, closer to .5 to 1.0 inches, with the chance for locally higher amounts. There appears to be multiple waves of upper level energy in this area that could produce locally higher amounts. As always, this map is not meant to be used for an exact amount forecast, but rather to highlight areas that could see more or less precip than others. Overall, we think W ND will see higher amounts than E ND. E SD could also be a third area that gets slightly more precip, however this is lower confidence and does have the potential to have some of the highest amounts stay to their N:
Please reach out to us at [email protected] with any questions you may have! Enjoy the rest of the day!