Good Saturday Morning!
A check on radar shows that we are currently looking at showers from the West Central parts of MN down to far SE MN:
24 hour rainfall estimates show that the majority of precip in the state fell on a line from Fargo, ND to St. Cloud to Minneapolis and points South. Most areas saw less than 0.75 inches with a few in the 0.75 – 1.00 inch range near the ND/SD/MN borders:
We think that as we work later into the day, we will gradually see our precip diminish in coverage. We think this model is initializing a little too heavy based on what we are currently seeing on radar so some of the first couple images in this loop may be too heavy in terms of coverage and intensity, but we agree that as we work into the afternoon and later into the evening, we will see our coverage diminish and also work its way to the East. Here is simulated radar from 10 AM CT until 7 PM CT tonight:
A look at modeled upper level energy shows that thought as we see our highest levels of energy (darker shades of red) will be working out of the state as the day goes on. As this main area woks off into WI, we are watching a second area of precip work into the state, this time focused in the Northern quarter of MN. Below is modeled upper level energy from 10 AM CT today until 7 AM CT Sun:
High temperatures today look to stay in the mid 70s (brighter oranges) for the northern third of MN, upper 70s to low 80s for the Central part of MN, and low 80s (darker oranges) for the southern third of the state. The southern and central parts of MN could be somewhat cooler than what is being modeled due to the precip in the area, as this can sometimes cause daytime highs to be a touch lower than what is being modeled:
Winds should generally be out of the S with sustained speeds of 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts to 15 mph. Sustained winds could be slightly higher in S MN, closer to 10 to 15 mph:
As shown in the upper level energy animation, we are watching for a round of precip to work its way into the far N sections of MN. This precip associated with a front that will work its way into the state this evening/overnight. Below is a look at moisture convergence from 4 PM CT this evening until 7 PM CT Sunday evening. We can see that the strongest convergence (dark yellows/oranges/reds) will come later this evening and into the overnight in the NW part of MN. As the front passes the state, it will gradually lose that convergence and that is why we see less precip chances during our Sunday:
Sunday looks to be a drier day as we think there are very little precip chances across the state. We cannot totally rule out something happening as our front sinks south, but the majority state looks to stay dry. A look at simulated radar from 10 PM CT Saturday evening out until 7 PM Sunday evening :
A look at precipitation guidance out through Sunday at 7 PM CT. The majority of precip that falls in the red circle will come during the day today and this evening. There can be a few scattered shower lingering into the overnight, but coverage and intensity will not be as heavy as what we have seen earlier this morning. We also think this model is a touch too heavy in SE MN. While totals can be in the 0.25 to 0.75 inch range with a few spots higher, we do not think we will see the area of 1.0+ inches like this model is depicting. The black circled area will see its best shot of precip come later this evening and into the overnight hours. Right now we are favoring lighter totals, more in the 0.1 to 0.4 inch range:
As always, if you have any questions please do not hesitate to reach out to us at [email protected] ! Enjoy your Saturday!