Good Monday afternoon!
A look at radar as of 5:30 PM CT. We are seeing a line of strong thunderstorms work its way through ND right now with the edge of this line clipping parts of extreme MW MN:
Our greatest threat for severe weather and flash flooding comes in the NW part of the state for the next 36 hours. This includes the risk of seeing severe thunderstorms with vivid lightning, large hail, heavy rains, high wind gusts, and an isolated tornado cannot be totally ruled out:
A look at simulated radar from 7 PM Central tonight until 1 AM Central tomorrow morning. The heaviest of rains will be in the NW corner of MN, as the E half of the state should stay dry up to this point. Below this is a snapshot of what radar could look like for your rush hour commute tomorrow at 8 AM Central. The majority of our heavier and more organized rain should stay in the W half of the state in the morning:
These showers and storms will continue to be present through the rest of afternoon and evening. Heavy rains are certainly on the table as we could see a cell put down an inch+ in less than an hour. Here is simulated radar from 1 PM Central Tuesday until 7 PM Central:
Rainfall guidance until 7 PM Central on Tuesday. NW Minnesota looks to be the area with the highest totals, 1.5 to 3 inches is possible with amounts higher locally. Rainfall amounts will taper the further S and E you go. Models are picking up on an area in SE MN that could receive slightly more rain, we are looking at a scattered 0.25 to 0.75 inches but this will not be as widespread or as numerous as the precip falling in NW MN on Tue. As mentioned, any strong cell from this low pressure system has the potential to put over an inch in your backyard, but your neighbor down the road doesn’t receive anything:
As always, if you have any questions or would like more localized forecast details please do not hesitate to reach out to us at [email protected] ! Enjoy the rest of your evening!