Good Sunday morning! We currently have an active radar (6:30am CDT) with a cluster of severe storms pushing across northwestern MN, pop-up storms ahead of this cluster in northeastern MN, and showers and embedded thunderstorms lagging behind in western ND/northwestern SD.
All the convection discussed will push east-northeast through the remainder of the morning, gradually weakening as they enter southwestern Ontario but not before producing some hail, gusty winds, and localized heavy rain across northeast ND into northern MN. The Storm Prediction Center has put out a Mesoscale Discussion regarding the ongoing severe threat across northern MN where another watch might be issued this morning.
Simulated radar through 2pm CDT today:
The cold front associated with this morning’s storms will sink southward through the day, initiating more strong storms (~3-4pm CDT) across northern/central MN into southeast ND/northeast SD. A large hail threat will develop initially before the storms congeal into a line with a more damaging wind threat and move southeastward through the evening before gradually weakening overnight across southern MN and far eastern SD as the storms enter a drier/more stable environment. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out with today’s severe weather threat.
Simulated radar from 2pm CDT today through 1pm CDT Monday: More upper-level will enter the western Dakotas overnight tonight into tomorrow morning behind today’s storms. Storms are expected to fire across WY/southern MT before pushing east into the western Dakotas gradually weakening through the morning hours tomorrow. I expect these storms to be limited and many areas across the western Dakotas will see little rain.
Rainfall associated with today’s storms: 
An upper-level ridge has positioned itself across the southern portions of the region, leading to above normal temperatures that will be prevalent across the region over the next several days. Pieces of upper-level energy will continue to ride the northern periphery of this ridge, bringing rain/storm risks during this period. Heat Advisories have been issued today for portions of SD where temperatures will likely top out near 100ºF.
Here’s a look at the maximum heat indices for this afternoon. Areas under the Heat Advisory can expect heat indices to top 100ºF.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: The Dakotas will receive the brunt of the heat with widespread 90s for highs, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will fail to fall under 70ºF across most areas with mid to upper 70s for lows possible.
Here’s a look at dew points over the next four days: Humidity levels will remain elevated with dew points exceeding 70ºF in numerous locations.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out via [email protected]! Have a great rest of your weekend!