Good Sunday evening!
A look at current radar conditions as of 9:30 PM Central. We are seeing some storms develop in Montana and will eventually work their way into the western parts of ND/SD:
Here is a quick peek at rainfall accumulation over the past 48 hours. For the most part, much of the Dakotas have stayed pretty dry since Friday night with Central SD being the area that picked up the most widespread rain:
North Dakota:
South Dakota:
Not much has changed since this afternoon’s forecast update for tonight and into the overnight hours. Tomorrow we are looking at the potential for severe weather coming in a couple waves. The first looks to be in the morning and this will be the leftovers of what moves through in the overnight hours. The area circled holds the highest potential to see heavy rains, hail, and strong winds overnight and into the early morning hours. Below is a radar simulation from 9 PM Sunday until 7 AM Central Monday:
After this area clears, the late morning looks to be okay as much of the severe weather looks to be working into the Dakota’s by the afternoon and into the evening. We will still see scattered storms in between the early morning and afternoon clusters, but they should be scattered in nature. Here is a radar simulation from 2 PM Central Monday until 7 AM Central Tuesday:
The area in yellow looks to have the highest chances of seeing severe weather with all threats (flooding, hail, wind, isolated tornado) in play:
With this risk for severe weather and heavy rains, flash flooding is a concern especially if this comes down at once in a strong cell. The area in yellow is in a slight risk for excessive rainfall for Monday, meaning that it is certainly possible we see flash flooding in these areas due to the multiple rounds of heavy rain. While much of the focus is on ND, this certainly does not mean that severe weather or flash flooding threats aren’t possible in SD. With this system however, the best chances of severe weather look to come in ND:
Here is a look at rainfall totals through 7 AM Central Tuesday. Do not take these totals for exact placement, but rather note the key takeaways of ND seeing the most widespread higher rainfalls and that pockets of 2+ inches in less than 36 hours are certainly possible:
As always, if you would like more localized forecast details or have any questions please do not hesitate to reach out to us at [email protected] ! Enjoy the rest of your evening!