Have a blessed weekend! -Kirk
Temperatures:
- We trended quite a bit colder across the central to eastern US vs the mid-month previous August forecast.
- This is a trend closer to the past 5 years on average for the central US seeing more cooler weather for this time of year.
- Given how August looks to start well below normal in the central Plains to MO Valley, we kept this theme going for the month as a whole (warmer on the Coasts).
- Risk: a risk here is tropical activity could keep the southeast/eastern US cooler at times. Another risk could be late August to start seeing a warmer trend for the central to eastern US if we do indeed see another dip negative in the AAM (global wind pattern – more La Nina like).
Precipitation:
- We increased moisture risks in the central to eastern US as we anticipate a continued uptick in tropical activity here and decent jet stream influence as well.
- 2005 continues to lead us ahead with the top tropical forcing analog into August (MJO), which did indeed saw a big uptick in tropical activity mid to late August.
- The persisting ridging in the west is anticipated to keep these locations drier than normal.
- Risk: a risk to this obviously the exact development of the tropical risks. If they stay more focused in the southeast/east, this can possibly dry up the forecast more often for the eastern/southern ag belt.