Good Wednesday afternoon!
Here is a look at current radar as of 5:00 PM CT. We are certainly seeing some pop-up/scattered activity across the Northern and Southern parts of KS as well as some more widespread activity through central and southern MO:
Here is a look at simulated radar from 5 PM CT tonight until 12 AM CT. Our scattered storms should weaken and become mush more isolated as the night goes on:
Below is a simulated radar for your 4th of July from 7 AM tomorrow until 7 PM ET. The good news is that coverage should be much less intense across Kansas as the day goes on, however we still will be dealing with some more organized rain and storm clusters for Missouri tomorrow. Our main storm cluster will be working its way from eastern KS to MO in the late morning to afternoon hours. This is due to an area of upper level of energy that will be progressing its way east on Thursday. As of right now this does not look to be an all day washout, but we think that the afternoon, especially in central parts of MO, has the potential for some decent rainfall accumulation:
Accumulation totals for tonight will vary widely as these storms have the ability to rapidly intensify, diminish, and then intensify again in the matter of a few minutes. Certainly a case where one county could pick up more than an inch but the county over sees next to nothing. The majority of these cells are not going to be fast movers as there is a lack of upper level winds to drive these storms. Here is a look at rainfall guidance through Thursday evening for MO/KS. We are looking at totals that will all depend on where these storms fire. The main takeaway from this image is that we are looking at lower totals for the W half of KS and NW parts of MO, and higher totals in E KS and the rest of MO. A heavy cell or two that doesn’t move much over the course of an hour certainly has the capability of putting down an more than an inch of rain:
As always, if you have any questions or would like more localized forecast details please do not hesitate to reach out to us at [email protected]! Enjoy the rest of you day and have a great 4th of July!