Good Sunday morning everyone! Some locations across far southeast KS into portions of western/northern MO are picking up heavy rain as of 8:30am CDT. These are the remnants of last night’s severe weather in the Western Plains. The good news is that these rains are currently falling in areas that are in need of a good rain with southeast MO possibly receiving some beneficial rains in the form of scattered storms later today.
Today’s severe storm outlook: The common theme the last few days is for strong to severe storms to develop over the Western Plains and push southeast, slowly weakening through the nighttime hours. Today will be no exception to this trend with strong to possibly severe thunderstorms developing across western NE/KS this afternoon into tonight. Low-level clouds will erode later this morning in the Western Plains, destabilizing the atmosphere once again. I would have to say that today’s threat isn’t as high as the previous two days, but with some severe weather ingredients coming together today, the threat will still be there for thunderstorms to become strong to severe at times. Here’s a graphic of the areas under threat for today.
Simulated radar through 11pm MDT this evening: The morning shield of rain/embedded thunderstorms across southeast KS/southwest MO will push southeast out of the area by 3pm CDT this afternoon with back-building possible in east-central MO behind this morning’s convection located there through the rest of the day. More storm development is possible in southeast MO later this afternoon into the evening with most convection lifting out of the area by 10pm CDT this evening. Isolated pop-ups will develop over IA before diminishing after sunset. As for the Western Plains, storm initiation is expected between 12-2pm MDT across western NE, building east into portions of central NE within a couple hours of initiation. Storms will push into western KS from the north and west after 5-6pm MDT this evening with eventually central KS receiving strong storms later this evening. There are some discrepancies between different hi-res models by the end of this loop (11pm MDT). The HRRR (shown below) has scattered storms with some clustering occurring across portions of KS while the NSSL and NAM3km keep the storm activity further west by this time. I’d have to argue for the HRRR solution as the moisture gradient runs NNW to ESE, allowing the eastern half of KS to possibly receive some isolated to scattered storms at this time. An update this afternoon will provide details on new model runs.
Simulated radar from 1am CDT Monday through 1am CDT Tuesday: Storms across KS will continue in a southeast movement through the overnight, pushing out of KS and even far southwestern MO by 10am CDT Monday. Behind this activity isolated areas of showers and storms likely persist through late morning and early afternoon in central KS with additional isolated to widely scattered showers and storms developing around the Central Plains early to mid afternoon before diminishing after sunset Monday.
Total rainfall through 7am CDT Monday: Areas within the encircled region will receive a general 0.25-1″ of rain with locally 2″+. A few areas may miss out on the storms. Scattered rains are expected across MO with 0.5-1.5″ in portions of east-central MO. Please take into account that this also includes the rains this morning in southeast KS, southwest MO and northeast MO. Rains are likely overdone in east-central MO and far eastern KS.
Euro model 7-day rainfall: Rains will remain confined to mostly central/western NE, KS, and the southern 2/3rds of MO. Little rainfall is expected in IA and far northern MO.
Temperatures over the next four days: Temperatures will remain seasonable through Tuesday with a warmer temps building into the area beginning Wednesday. Most locations will have highs in the mid 70s to low 80s through Tuesday. Low temperatures will also drop through Tuesday morning with the quasi-stationary boundary dipping south of the area. Overnight lows will climb starting Wednesday morning.
Dew points over the next four days: Humidity levels will drop through the period, especially across the Western Plains.
Wind forecast over the next four days: Winds will remain generally light through the period with a few gusts possible Monday in western KS.
Euro Model 10-day forecast for select cities across the Central Plains:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out via [email protected]! Have a great day!