Good Thursday afternoon! Scattered showers and storms associated with a disturbance in the Western Plains have fired across portions of central/southwest NE into northwest KS with additional convection lifting east across southeast KS and central/southern MO. By 12am CDT most of the shower/embedded storm activity in southeast KS/southern MO will push out of the region.
The SPC has highlighted western NE/KS for the possibility of strong storms through the remainder of the evening with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 9pm MDT for the Nebraska panhandle. Localized large hail and damaging winds may accompany the storms this evening. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out
Simulated radar through 6am MDT Friday morning: Showers and storms across western KS/NE will continue in a SSE direction through the evening before gradually weakening after 9-10pm MDT. Model guidance differs on storm coverage and location heading into Friday morning, regardless, expect a few areas of isolated to scattered storms to persist across portions of KS/NE Friday morning.
A bigger storm threat will come late Friday afternoon into the nighttime hours. A brief overview of what to expect is shown below:
Simulated radar from 6am MDT Friday through 6am MDT Saturday morning: Daytime heating will build into western NE/KS eroding most morning stratus clouds in the region. Instability is expected to build into the afternoon hours coupled with steep lapse rates (change in temperatures with altitude) and vertical wind shear will lead to an environment that’s conducive for the initial development of discrete cells (possibly supercells) after 2pm MDT. These storms will dive southeast through the remainder of the afternoon and evening across central and western NE/KS with the greatest threats residing in western KS/NE. During the evening the discrete cells may congeal into a cluster that continues in a SSE direction. The severe weather threat may persist into the nighttime hours across these areas with primarily a damaging wind threat. By 6am MDT Saturday morning, the severe weather threat would have died down with morning convection lingering across eastern NE/KS into northern MO.
Total rainfall through 6am MDT Saturday: No model will have a perfect solution for how the showers and storms play out but locally 1-2″ of rain is possible from central NE to the western half of KS as heavy storms likely affect these areas. Convection Friday and Saturday morning across eastern NE will dump locally 1″+ of rain.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out via [email protected]! Have a great rest of your day!