Good Saturday afternoon!
A check on radar shows that we totally dry across the state with some “feels like” temps in the low 100s across the entire state:
We are expecting this to change as we move into the back half of the weekend. We are watching for the potential for a couple rounds of storms in the early morning hours tomorrow, and again tomorrow evening. Here is a look at simulated upper level energy from 7 AM CT Sun until 7 PM CT, the darker reds indicate more upper level energy present. As shown below, our two best shots for precipitation come in the early morning and late evening hours tomorrow, mainly focused in the Northern part of the state:
Below is a look at simulated radar from 7 AM CT Sun until 7 PM CT. As mentioned, we are looking at the precip in the morning hours to affect the North and North/Central portions of the state as this storm cluster will work its way south from IA and slowly lose steam doing so. The afternoon as of now looks to be okay for most of MO with the highest chances of precip again being in the northern quarter of MO. The SE part of MO we think could see some hit and miss showers and storms tomorrow afternoon, but the current thinking is that this is not very widespread and not anything to cancel plans for. We will have to keep an eye on tomorrow evening as this is when we could see some more widespread coverage across the state. There is the potential for some severe weather with some of these cells tomorrow, the primary focus for any strong or severe activity being in the evening hours. This is not to say storms cannot be severe and have strong damaging winds or large hail earlier in the day, but this is when the chances are highest:
Temperatures tomorrow will again be on the warmer side of things with “feels like” values in the low 100s for much of the state as shown below. Monday should bring some relief to the heat as we are anticipating highs to only be in the low to mid 80s across the state:
A look at rainfall guidance out through Sunday evening from 4 hi-resolution, short term models. We think that the heaviest of rains will fall right around the IA/MO border. Current thinking is that a general 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain can fall from St. Joseph, Chillicothe, Macon, Hannibal, and points north to the IA border. Localized areas will receive closer to an inch or 1.5 inches where the heaviest cells set up. There is a chance for some lighter accumulations in the SE parts of the state due to the potential for hit and miss storms tomorrow PM as mentioned above. Other than this, we think the majority of the S half of the state should stay primarily dry through Sunday early evening. We favor a blend of the 2 images on the right for precip amounts:
As always, if you have any questions please do not hesitate to reach out to us at [email protected] ! Enjoy the rest of your Saturday!