Good Friday afternoon!
A look at radar as of 2:20 PM CT shows that we are dealing with some light rain in the northern portions of the state with some strong thunderstorm activity starting to ramp up in the central portion of MN as mentioned in the morning update:
Our immediate concern weather wise is going to be the rest of the afternoon and evening focused in the middle section of the state. The Eastern/Central portion of MN is where we see the highest threat fore severe weather as this is where our “ingredients” for severe weather are at their highest. Top left is a look at low level spin in the atmosphere and we see the highest values (red) circled, our dew points (top right) are in the upper 70s so we have plenty of moisture to work with, in the bottom left we have tons of instability (pink and grey colors) and a good gradient (grey, pink, red,yellow,green all close to each other), and in the bottom right we have the changing of wind direction with height with high values (browns and light pinks):
Below is a simulated radar from 2 PM CT today until 10 PM CT tonight. As we can see, storms will be most potent and intense (brighter reds and pinks) in the central part of MN and will be more intense as they work their way to the WI border. Any cell that sparks will have the potential to turn severe very fast as conditions are prime for these thunderstorms to grow pretty quick. All forms of severe weather are on the table this evening as we are looking at heavy downpours where the cells move, lightning, high winds, large hail, and tornados. There is the potential for some of these cells to produce some stronger tornados, this will be something we have to watch closely:
Tonight into the overnight we will be watching another round of rain moving into the state, with the heaviest amounts of rain focused in the southern parts of the state. This is associated with the front moving through that should provide a relief from the temperatures and humidity tomorrow. Below is simulated radar from 7 PM CT tonight until 5 AM CT tomorrow morning. We think this model does a good job showing the precip associated with the front moving through S MN in the overnight hours. We are watching for the potential for a storm cluster to ride along the IA/MN border in the early morning hours as shown:
Tomorrow looks to bring highs in the upper 70’s to low 80’s statewide as we can see the front working its way S and into IA:
Tomorrow we will once again be dealing with rain in the state with the focus on the Central and Southern parts of the state. Below is a snapshot of simulated radar for noon. Some of this rain can work its way into the Northern half of MN, but the current thought is that most of the rain that the Northern third of MN will see over the next 36 hours will be coming from what is falling now. Rain chances and coverage look to diminish as we go into Sat evening:
A look at rainfall guidance out through Saturday evening. As mentioned multiple times, our heaviest and most widespread rainfall amounts will be centered on the Central and Southern portions of the state. Amounts in N MN may be slightly higher due to what we are currently seeing fall, however we think this model does a decent job showing the heavier rains from the storms in East/Central MN this evening, and the front/storm cluster tonight and into the overnight hours along the IA border. The one other area that we think could be higher is the West/Central parts of MN near the MN/ND/SD border as there could be some more rain in the early hours of tomorrow:
As always, if you have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out to [email protected] ! Enjoy the rest of your Friday!