Good Tuesday afternoon!
A check on radar as of 4:45 PM CT shows we have some rain moving over the central parts of ND with a few spotty cells on the ND/SD border and a lone cell in W SD:
The rest of the evening overall looks like we could be dealing with another storm cluster from this evening and into the overnight hours. Severe weather with this cluster is certainly possible as noted in the AM update with the focus being on a line from NW to SE SD as this cluster works its way W to E. Below is a radar loop from 10 PM CT tonight until 9 AM CT tomorrow:
After this cluster works its way out of the Dakota’s, we think tomorrow has the potential be overall dry minus some spotty storms in ND. Here is modeled upper level energy from 5 AM CT Wed until 4 PM CT. This energy (darker reds) will work W to E across the states overnight and into the early AM before working into MN. Our focus for severe weather and the heaviest rains look to stay in SD as mentioned earlier, but this does not mean we cant see some stronger or isolated severe weather in ND overnight. All forms of severe weather including an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out:
Here is a look at the simulated radar for noon Wednesday. We can see our storm cluster off into MN and just some leftover very isolated storms lingering in ND. Like we mentioned above, we do think some to most of the Dakota’s stay dry early tomorrow afternoon, but we do want to mention the risk that some models are more aggressive with these storms in the later afternoon hours and have more widespread coverage. Confidence is currently low with these storm risks in the PM, and details will need to be refined in the AM update:
High temperatures tomorrow should be in the upper 70s/low 80s for much of ND and the northern half of SD, with upper 80s/low 90s for the SE portion of SD:
Modeled rainfall guidance for the next 36 hours. Continuing with the same message as previous days, rainfall totals will ultimately depend on where these clusters exactly track.We do think however that the focus for the most rainfall will be in the Central and SE parts of SD. Two things we want to keep a close eye on out through Wednesday evening, the area in S ND circled could be a touch overdone with rainfall as it is pretty aggressive with the cluster overnight. We also think the area in NW SD could have more rainfall than the model is noting here:
As always, if you have any questions please do not hesitate to reach out to us at [email protected] ! Enjoy the rest of your Tuesday!