Good Tuesday afternoon!
A check on radar as of 4:10 PM CT shows that a storm cluster is working its way W to E in the S portion of MN while the rest of the state is dry :
The rest of the evening overall looks to be okay once this cell moves out of the area as we could be looking at a dry first half of the overnight. There is the possibility of some lingering isolated showers and storms this evening and the early overnight hours, but this does not appear to be widespread. Below is a radar loop from 4 PM CT tonight until 12 AM CT tomorrow:
We are watching for yet another storm cluster to work in the area in the early morning hours/ right around sunrise as a cluster should come into the W parts of the state from the Dakota’s. Here is modeled upper level energy from 5 AM CT Wed until 4 PM CT. This energy (darker reds) will work W to E across the state and provide another opportunity for severe weather. Our focus for severe weather and the heaviest rains look to stay in the Southern third of the state. This does not rule out severe weather for the rest of the state, but we think the most severe weather will be concentrated from Minneapolis and points south. All forms of severe weather including an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out:
After this cluster tomorrow morning and afternoon works its way E and out of the state, we will have to keep an eye for the evening for the possibility of another cluster to be present in the central and southern parts of the state. A view of modeled upper level energy and simulated radar at 7 PM CT tomorrow evening:
High temperatures tomorrow should be in the upper 70s/low 80s for the northern half of the state and upper 80s/low 90s for the southern half of the state:
Modeled rainfall guidance for the next 36 hours. Continuing with the same message, rainfall totals will ultimately depend on where these clusters exactly track.We do think however that the focus for the most rainfall will be in the Central and Southern parts of the state, and totals shown with this model may not be too far off. We will have to keep a close eye on that Wed evening cluster as this will affect the totals we see in the next 36 hours:
As always, if you have any questions please do not hesitate to reach out to us at [email protected] ! Enjoy the rest of your Tuesday!