Good Monday afternoon!
A quick look at radar as of 4:15 PM CT shows that we are seeing a few spotty hit and miss showers and storms across the Dakotas:
Here is the modeled upper level energy from 9 PM CT this evening until 1 PM CT Tue. Our unsettled weather pattern looks to continue tonight and into tomorrow.We are looking at the focus of precip in the next 36 hours to fall in SD as this is where we are seeing the highest amounts of upper level energy. This energy should be enough forcing to spark storms and keep these scattered, hit and miss storms in play for the rest of the overnight and throughout the day tomorrow. We expect the general storm movement to be W to E:
As mentioned in the AM update, all these storms all have the potential to be severe and contain high wind gusts and large hail. These storms will also be scattered, this should not be a widespread event where everyone will receive the same amounts of rain. We do think however the highest chance for the most severe weather will come in the W third of SD. Here is a simulated radar loop from 7 PM CT this evening until 1 PM CT Tue:
High temperatures tomorrow should be much cooler for much of ND as we have high temperatures in the 70’s for much of the state with the MN/ND border being the one area most likely to get into the middle 80’s. South Dakota looks to be a little more divided as we have temps in the Northern half of the state around 80, and highs closer to the upper 80’s near the SD/NE border:
A look at rainfall guidance through 7 PM CT Tue. We want to stress that models are still somewhat rather inconsistent and not performing great due to this upper level pattern. The main point precip wise is that amounts are going to vary greatly over the next 36 hours and we could see instances of people in the same county that have over 1+ inch differences in rainfall amounts. With that said, we do think the heaviest rains and area with the most coverage will be W and Central SD. One area that we need to watch is the W half of ND. Data is showing vast differences in rainfall amounts, but this is our preferred solution below. We do see a broad area of upper level energy moving over W ND around the sunrise timeframe tomorrow, so this could provide the potential for some storms.
As always, if you have any questions please do not hesitate to reach out to us at [email protected] ! Enjoy the rest of your Monday!