7-15-19 Missouri: Heavy rains target SE areas through Tuesday – major heat wave/dry stretch coming mid-week through weekend. N.

Video:

Flash flood watch for SE Missouri into Tuesday evening:

Forecast rainfall through Tuesday afternoon: Impressive amounts expected around St. Louis to Rolla to West Plains and points east with a widespread 1-3″.  Local 4″ amounts cannot be ruled out.  Meanwhile, the northwest portions of the state stay dry.  

This disturbance will exit southeast Missouri Tuesday night.  A weak northwest aloft means we cannot rule out an isolated storm threat mainly in northwest areas early Wednesday, but that appears rather isolated.

Overall, main story ahead is intense heat.  Highs near 100º mid to late week through the weekend with heat indices 100-110º each day, locally up to 115º.  Also a very dry pattern from mid week through the weekend.  

Wind forecast over the next 4 days:

Forecast rainfall from normal over the next 7 days: Parts of northwest Missouri stay totally dry the next 7 days.  Meanwhile, the southeast portions of the state will be skewed well above normal thanks to the hefty rains today into Tuesday from Barry’s remnants.  

*There IS a pattern change noted late this month that brings back precipitation for a time and back to more normal temperatures.  However, we don’t think this cooler pattern lasts.*. 

Temperature data:

St. Joseph:

Jefferson City:

St. Louis: