Good Monday afternoon!
A check on radar as of 5:10 PM CT shows that we are still looking at some strong storm clusters that have really started to develop over the past couple hours:
Here is a look at modeled upper level energy from 9 PM CT this evening until 1 PM CT tomorrow. This wave of rain and storms as seen on radar will continue to push its way to the ESE, and we should see most of the state dry tomorrow during the morning. The one exception being the S third of the state as some energy still looks to be in the area:
The focus for the highest rain chances tomorrow shifts to the Southern half of the state. Below is a look at modeled upper level energy at 6 PM CT tomorrow. This area of energy will be coming from the Dakotas and working its way W to E. As with any precip for the next 36 hours, we believe that all storms have the chance to be severe with the two main severe risks being strong wind gusts and large hail:
Tomorrow does look to have the potential to have *less* severe weather as we see a decrease in the amount of instability for storms to work with. The left image is instability for 6 PM this evening, and the right image is 6 PM tomorrow evening. Brighter oranges/pinks/yellows suggest more instability (energy) for storms to work with and become stronger and more severe. This is not to say that there will be no severe threat tomorrow, but it looks more likely tonight:
High temperatures tomorrow look to generally split the state in two, the Northern half of MN looking at temps in the low 80’s and the Southern half should be seeing more readings in the mid to upper 80’s with a few spots likely touching 90:
A look at rainfall guidance out through 7 PM CT Tue. As mentioned in yesterday’s update, models are not doing extremely well with this upper level pattern so amounts shown below is most likely not the exact amount that will fall. We do agree with the highest amounts falling in the lower half of the state given that upper level energy shown at the beginning of the post, however we think this is underdone in the North, especially the NE parts of MN, given what is currently happening on radar. Current thought is a general 0.75 to 1.5 inches for S MN and amounts less the further N you go. With that said, rainfall totally are going to vary greatly as the amounts all depend on where the storm clusters set up. Over the past 24 hours, Morrison County in the Central part of the state has had measured rainfall totals range from 0.25 inches to over 3.5 inches. These storms will continue to be hit and miss, but we think the focus for Tuesday will be in the S parts of the state:
As always, if you have any questions please do not hesitate to reach out to us at [email protected] ! Enjoy the rest of your Monday!