Good Sunday afternoon!
A look here at radar shows that we are seeing some storms in the North/Central part of MN with a storm cluster in SD that is trying to work its way into the extreme W parts of the state:
A look at our overall weather pattern for the next several days. We have a very strong area of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere that is going to be bringing above normal warmth for much of the US. This warmth is associated with that high pressure, or “ridge”. This ridge right now is right over the Central US, meaning that the “top” of the ridge is located over the US/CAN border. With this ridge and its placement, in MN we see the movement of the atmosphere coming from the NW, commonly called “Northwest Flow”.This NW flow is unfortunately situated right over the Northern Plains. In NW flow patterns, models usually do a poor job of recognizing where our areas of highest upper level energy are. With that said, forecast confidence is lower than normal due to this NW flow and models not having the best grasp on this kind of pattern:
Below is a look at simulated radar going from 7 PM CT Sun until 7 AM CT Mon.We do expect coverage to pick up in the Central parts of the state especially as the evening goes on and into the overnight hours. The threat for severe weather with any of these cells is certainly on the table with the two biggest concerns being strong winds and large hail, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out however. While storms can spark pretty much anywhere with temps in the upper 80s/low 90s, dew points in the 70s, and plenty of instability statewide, we think the area of highest potential for severe storms and more widespread coverage ends up in the Central third of the state:
As we work into our Monday, we are looking at the potential for these scattered thunderstorms to continue, especially in the northern half of the state. Any cell that does pop has the potential to turn severe so we will need to keep a close eye on how things evolve tonight and throughout the day tomorrow. A simulated radar loop from 11 AM CT Mon until 7 PM CT Mon:
Rainfall guidance going out until 7 PM Monday. As mentioned at the beginning of this post, confidence is not extremely high in the models due to our upper level pattern so do not look at rainfall guidance for exact placement and exact numbers. Current thought is to see some of the areas with the highest rain totals in the next 36 hours to fall in the circled area, even though this model is not showing much. The reasoning for this is because we are thinking this area will see the highest area of upper level energy move through here over the next 36 hours, and this is where we could see the highest amounts of instability and wind shear. These are two “ingredients” in thunderstorm formation. Areas to the North of the circle could also be looking at stronger cells in this short term timeframe. We could be looking at a general 0.25 to 0.50 inches with the potential to receive 1.0+ inches where the locally heaviest cells are located:
High temperatures Monday could be around 90 for much of the state with temps looking to be closer to the mid 80’s in the Northern sections of MN:
As always, if you have any questions please do not hesitate to reach out to us at [email protected] ! Enjoy the rest of your Sunday!