Good Saturday afternoon!
A quick look at radar shows there is not much happening in the state minus a few cells to the E of Bismarck:
Much of the state should stay dry for the rest of the afternoon and this evening, the one exception being E ND. Some upper level energy moving over the far E sections of the state should provide some potential for strong to severe storms. Here is a look at that mentioned energy over the E quarter of ND around 8 PM CT. Any storms that do pop certainly have the potential to be severe with all forms of severe weather in play:
Sunday looks to bring more of a wide spread rain across the state that will work its way W to E during the day. A look at the upper level energy associated with this shortwave disturbance that will move through ND is shown below. Western ND will be impacted by this first with the leading edge of rain coming around ~4-6 AM CT. The area of rain and storms will continue E and should move into MN by ~4 PM CT tomorrow. Here is a modeled loop of the upper level energy from 4 AM CT Sunday until 4 PM CT Sunday:
Here is a look at simulated radar from 7 AM CT Sunday until 7 PM CT Sunday:
The highest potential for severe weather tomorrow afternoon and evening looks to again be the E and SE parts of ND. This is the area where we see the highest amounts of instability, high upper level wind speeds, and greatest turning of the winds with height. While strong storms are possible state wide with that upper level energy passing, this is the area that has the highest potential for severe activity tomorrow afternoon and evening:
High temperatures tomorrow state-wide should be in the upper 80’s to right around 90. Some of the rain cooled air working down to the surface should help keep some of the high temps cooler in the middle and E portions of the state:
Rainfall guidance out until 7 PM CT Sunday. Overall we think this model puts the heaviest of rains a little too far N into Canada, but a general 0.25 to 0.75 inches is possible with amounts locally higher where the strongest cells set themselves up. This will not be a statewide washout where everybody gets inches of rain, but the focus of this image is to note that we should see more areas receiving rain than not:
As always if you have any questions please do not hesitate to reach out to us at [email protected] ! Enjoy the rest of your Saturday!