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Good Tuesday morning! Quiet morning across the region, but we are watching strong storms just north in southwest Minnesota which continue to dive southeast. We are increasing the risk of these storms to impact portions of northern Iowa as we go into late morning. These are starting to show signs of weakening, and not a single computer model puts rain in Iowa, but we think the risk is there given the radar trends. My highest confidence on that threat is in the circled red area. Storms have been trying to back-build southwest where instability values are higher.
Overall, the next couple of days remain dry for much of the region. A front will bring increased chances for scattered storms late Thursday into early Friday. This will be the beginning of a more active pattern this weekend and into next week.
GFS rainfall forecast over the next 7 days is shown below. Given the set-up, we actually favor this solution with a more active rainfall pattern this weekend and carrying into next week. Areas south across the southern half of Missouri/southern and eastern Kansas is where my lowest confidence for rains are.
High temperatures over the next 4 days:
Low temperatures over the next 4 days:
Dewpoints over the next 4 days:
Wind forecast over the next 4 days:
Weeks 1 and 2 temperatures from normal:
Weeks 1 and 2 precipitation from normal:
