Good Monday afternoon!
Here is a look at observed rainfall in the past 24 hours. As noted in the AM update, almost all of the rain that fell in the state in the past 24 hours has come in the southern and western parts of the state. Most of the rainfall has been of the lighter variety, as most places that did receive rain did not pick up over a quarter inch:
Here is a look at radar as of 4:10 PM CT. We are continuing to see those scattered showers and storms in MN/SD, but nothing being observed in ND at this time:
We are keeping an eye on some upper level energy working into the Western parts of the state into the overnight hours. Here is a modeled loop of that upper level energy going from 1 AM CT Tuesday morning to 10 AM CT Tuesday. This wave of energy will weaken as it crosses the state so we are expecting the highest amounts of precip to fall in W ND:
This line of showers and storms will work its way from W to E this evening and into the early morning hours. Here is a simulated radar loop from 6 PM CT until 6 AM CT Tuesday morning. Most activity should stay to the West, as well as along the CAN border as it works its way E and should be moving toward central ND by midnight CT . This certainly does not the rule out for some widely scattered precip in the eastern parts of ND come Tuesday morning:
Some of these storms in the overnight hours for Western ND could be severe with the main threats being heavier rainfall rates, high wind gusts, lightning, and some possible hail. The SPC has placed parts of W ND in a slight risk for severe weather:
Tomorrow looks to be a drier day for the majority of the state as we have a break in the waves upper level energy. This energy is what has been bringing waves of storms to parts of the northern plains the past couple days. Some models are hinting at a few areas of increased energy near the Montana/ND border as well as the ND/SD border so we will need to watch for the potential for some widely scattered showers and storms in the afternoon hours. The eastern part of the state could be looking at a stray shower, but we think the majority of E ND stays dry, these are pretty small chances the further E you go and anything that fell should not amount to much (~20% chances of precip). Here is a modeled upper level energy image for Tuesday at 4 PM CT:
A look at rainfall guidance through Tuesday evening. As mentioned throughout much of this post, the rainfall focus for the rest of today and going through Tuesday night will be the Western parts of the state. Some localized areas could pick up over 1.0 to 1.5 inches of rain where those heavier cells set up, but current thought is that there will be a “base” of 0.25 to 0.75 inches for much of the western third of ND:
As always, if you have any questions or would like more localized forecast details please do not hesitate to reach out to us at [email protected] ! Have a great rest of your Monday!