Good Monday afternoon!
Here is a look at observed rainfall in the past 24 hours. As noted in the AM update, almost all of the rain that fell in the state yesterday and today has come in the Southern part of the state as there was generally less than a tenth inch of rain that fell in the northern half of MN. Some of these totals in the S are underdone as we are still seeing rain falling:
Here is a look at radar as of 3:15 PM CT. We are continuing to see those scattered showers and storms in the southern portions of the state and these are generally moving east:
This line of showers and storms will continue this evening and into the overnight. Here is a simulated radar loop from 6 PM CT until 6 AM CT Tuesday morning. Most activity should stay to the southern half of the state, but this certainly does not the rule out for some widely scattered precip in the central parts of MN:
The Southern part of MN is still under a slight risk for excessive rainfall as these storms will continue to hit some areas that have already received 4 inches or more in the past 24 hours:
Tomorrow looks to be a drier day in general as we have a break in the upper level energy that has been bringing the multiple waves of storms the past couple days. Some models are hinting at a few areas of increased energy near the Canada border so we will need to watch for the potential for some widely scattered showers and storms. The southern quarter of the state could be looking at a stray shower from the energy working through Iowa as shown below, but we think these are pretty small chances and anything that fell would not amount to much (~20% chances of precip). Here is a simulated radar image for Tuesday at 4 PM CT:
A look at rainfall guidance through Tuesday evening. These totals could be heavier than what is being modeled for S MN where we see some of these storms “train” this evening and into tonight. Totals could be more around 1.0 to 1.5 inches under those heavier bands of rain. Most of the rainfall being shown for S MN will come tonight as tomorrow should be a mostly dry day as mentioned. Accumulation near the CAN/MN border tomorrow should not amount to much, current thought is between a tenth to a quarter inch. These showers and storms will be scattered in nature and not anything area-wide:
As always, if you have any questions or would like more localized forecast details please do not hesitate to reach out to us at [email protected] ! Have a great rest of your Monday!