Good evening! Here are your latest updates:
Over the last 24 hours there have been showers and storms moving through the area bringing up to 1.5 inches in some areas of the state. More rainfall is in the forecast. Details below:
Past 24 hour precipitation totals:
A good amount of upper-level energy is going to push through the northwestern portion of the state tonight bringing the chance for both heavy rain and the risk of severe weather. Tonight the majority of the risks will be confined to the northwestern corner of the state with the primary risks being for strong winds and large hail with plenty of low-level energy and moisture to support severe storm development. Here is a look at the waves of upper-level energy that will be the driver of these storms through Tuesday evening:
Low-level energy available tonight (yellow or greater is sufficient for severe storm development) and region of best chances of severe weather and flash flooding:
There will also be lingering energy in the area tomorrow afternoon that will spark another round of storms through the central portion of the state. There will again be enough low-level energy for some of these storms to have strong winds and isolated large hail pockets. Here is the area at greatest risk for severe weather tomorrow evening:
The west-central part of the state has gotten lucky and missed out on a lot of the heaviest rains recently, but the southern, eastern, and northwestern portions of the state will still be at risk for flash flooding with these storms over the next 24 hours. The storms tonight in the northwest portion of the state will be moving relatively slowly so they will have the ability to give areas under the heaviest cells 0.5-1.5″ of rain within a short period of time this evening. There could be isolated pockets of 2+” of rain tonight, but rain totals are expected to be the greatest with this lingering energy on Monday evening. The upper-level energy will remain nearly stationary Monday evening allowing this line of storms to develop and sit over the region outlined below:
If these remain relatively stationary for an hour or two they have the potential to bring 2+” of rain to this region which will surpass current flood guidance. Currently across the region at risk we need 2.4-2.6″ within a 3 hour period to be at risk for flash flooding. Most areas under these storms on Monday night will receive 0.5-1.5″ across a wide area.
Needed rainfall in a 3 hour period to be at risk for flash flooding:
Modeled precipitation totals through Monday night:
Model simulated radar for tonight through early Tuesday morning:
As always if you have any questions or concerns don’t hesitate to reach out! Have a wonderful evening!