Good Afternoon! Here are your latest updates:
Over the last 24 hours a system of storms moved through the western half of North Dakota bringing severe weather and heavy rain. Saturday is when the next main chance of severe storms and heavy precipitation will be. Details below:
Past 24 hour precipitation:
Saturday morning could be a near repeat of Friday morning where there will be a line of storms moving through the western half of North Dakota. Storms are likely to move across the western border of North Dakota between 3-4am. There will be plenty of low-level energy for strong wind and large hail development. Tornado chances are unlikely in the morning hours, but will ramp up as we move into the afternoon.
Saturday evening a lot of low-level energy will be in the eastern half North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota that will coincide with some upper-level energy bringing a greater chance for severe storms. With the amounts of energy we will be seeing it won’t take much of a push to get these storms off the ground and they will develop relatively quickly. The main severe risk will be strong wind, hail, and a few tornadoes are likely with the forecasted low-level turning of the winds. Storms are likely to continue through the evening hours especially in northwestern Minnesota. Another line will develop in North Dakota in the late evening/early morning hours on Sunday that will bring more heavy rain pockets and severe storm chances.
Modeled low-level energy Saturday-Sunday morning (anything yellow or greater is sufficient for severe storms):
Modeled upper-level energy Saturday evening – Sunday morning (two primary waves one Saturday evening and one Sunday morning):
Greatest risk for severe weather Saturday evening:
Along with our severe storm risks Saturday-Sunday morning there will also be a flash flood risk. Currently the majority of the state of North Dakota only needs 1.5-2″ of rainfall to be at risk for flash flooding. The northern portion of Minnesota is less likely to have flash flood conditions, but the northwestern border is still at risk as well. These systems will not move slowly, but they will have plenty of available moisture to give areas under the heavier cells 1.5-2.5″ of rainfall in a 3 hour window surpassing current flood guidance.
3 hour flood guidance (how much rain is needed in a 3 hour period to cause flash flooding)
Modeled precipitation totals through Sunday morning:
Model simulated radar Saturday-Sunday morning:
As always if you have any questions or concerns don’t hesitate to reach out! Have a wonderful weekend!