Good Afternoon! Here are your latest updates:
Over the last 24 hours the southern half of the state has gotten anywhere from 0.25-2″ of precipitation.
Past 24 hour precipitation:
There will be a line of thunderstorms that will be moving in through the overnight hours that have the potential to be severe with the primary risk being strong winds, but isolated pockets of large hail and a tornado cannot be ruled out. There will be two main waves of energy that are going to move through between now and Saturday evening that are illustrated below. These waves will both have plenty of low-level energy and upper-level support for severe weather and also sufficient amounts of moisture to cause flash flooding.
Wave 1 (Friday):
The first wave will move through early tomorrow morning beginning ~3am and going through ~12pm, but it could leave behind some boundaries that could spark some isolated severe storms in the afternoon as well. There will be a lot of low-level energy to support any storm that will develop both tomorrow and Saturday. Based on all of the elements of the assessment below here are the regions that have the greatest risk of severe weather tomorrow on top of a model simulated radar image at 5am CDT:
Wave 2 (Saturday evening):
Another wave of upper-level energy will move down from Manitoba into the eastern half of the state bringing the risk again for severe weather Saturday evening. However, these storms are more likely to have large hail and isolated tornadoes than in the wave we are expecting tomorrow morning. The reason for this being that there will be a lot more low-level energy and turning of the winds throughout the lower parts of the atmosphere to support the cells that will be developing. A sufficient amount of energy for a severe storm to develop is around 1500 on the map below. In the eastern half of the state we will have values greater than 5000. Here is the highlighted area where severe storms are most likely to develop Saturday evening:
Modeled upper-Level energy tonight-Saturday evening:
Modeled low-level energy (anything greater than the green is sufficient for severe storm development; greater than yellow is way more than enough energy):
Along with the potential for severe weather for the next couple of days there is sufficient moisture in the atmosphere for a risk of flash flooding. Right now the majority of the state only needs 1.5-2″ of rain in a 3 hour period in order to be under sufficient conditions for flash flooding. Here are the current amounts of rain we would need in 3 hours to cause flash flooding (Note: tomorrow this will change after the rain comes through the western half of the state; less rain could be needed with higher soil moisture):
That being said the primary flash flood risk coincides with the severe storm risk for Friday and the same for Saturday. The flash flooding will happen where these storms set up. There will be plenty of moisture in the atmosphere to cause more than an inch in an hour if one of these cells comes over your area. Rain totals are expected to be 0.5-1.5″ across the majority of the state this weekend. There will be many pockets of 2+” as a result of this system. The precipitation map below is most likely a little underdone in some areas based on the available moisture.
Modeled available moisture for precipitation through Saturday evening (This is how much water is available to fall as rain in the atmosphere):
Modeled precipitation totals through Saturday night:
Model simulated radar for tonight through early Sunday morning:
As always if you have any questions or concerns don’t hesitate to reach out! Have a wonderful evening!