Good Tuesday afternoon!
Here is a look at observed rainfall the past 24 hours. Missouri as a whole enjoyed some dry time with only some spotty showers near the IA border and to the S of St. Louis:
The extreme Northern portions of Missouri need to keep an eye on tonight as some severe storms start to develop near sunset and should linger through midnight. Here is simulated radar from 8 PM tonight until 2 AM Wednesday morning. Current thought is that this model could be under-doing the severe threat potential right along the IA/MO border:
Since our last forecast sent out this morning, the SPC has extended the “enhanced” further south and further east to include more of Southern Iowa and Northern Missouri. This extended risk is outlined in blue. The main severe concerns with these storms are heavy rain, hail, gusty winds, and the potential for isolated tornadoes. Based on current radar and development in IA, we think this enhanced risk should be shifted slightly north to encompass more of S IA as this is where the gradient has set up for the most instability in the atmosphere:
The rain and storm potential dies down after tonight for the Northern portion of the state with the threat for storms shifting to the south on Wednesday. Here is a simulated radar snapshot for 5 PM Central for Wednesday afternoon. There is the potential for more widespread activity to include more of the Central part of the state tomorrow than what is being shown below, this will be fine tuned in our forecast sent out tomorrow morning:
Rainfall guidance through Wednesday night at 8 PM. As mentioned earlier, the main threat for rainfall in the Northern part of the state comes tonight and the Southern parts of MO look to have rainfall chances increase tomorrow:
As always, if you would like more localized forecast details please do not hesitate to contact us at [email protected] ! Enjoy the rest of your evening!