Good Afternoon! Here are your latest updates:
We have gotten pretty lucky for the beginning of the day with little to no rain across the region, but that will change tonight with upper and low-level energy moving into the area.
Past 24 hour precipitation:
There are already small pop-up storms in Eastern Nebraska and as the afternoon goes on these should become more numerous. With the amount of energy that will be in SE Nebraska and possibly far NE Kansas this evening we are expecting some severe storm activity with the primary threats being strong winds and large hail. This morning the models were putting the majority of the storm activity across the whole region, but just like we have energy that creates storms there is energy that can prevent storms from happening as well and this is called inhibition. The models now are favoring a good amount of inhibition throughout the majority of the region except for SE Nebraska and NE Kansas which means storms that attempt to develop outside this region will likely not get strong enough to be severe and will also not be long lived.
Low-Level Energy tonight ~5-6 pm. Everything that looks “foggy” or blurred out on this graphic means that there is inhibition that could prevent storms from fully maturing:
Severe weather outlook for this evening. We believe that this could be shifted a little further north based on what we are seeing currently on radar and in the most recent models. The area outlined below is where we believe the best risk is for a severe storm this evening:
In addition to a severe risk this evening there is also a risk for flash flooding. If a heavier cell gets over your area the majority of the main threat region only needs 1.5-1.8″ in one hour to have suitable flash flood conditions. With the amount of moisture that will be in the air this evening it is likely that some areas could get torrential downpours and you could see some flooding as a result. We do believe that the models are under representing the amount of precipitation likely in the area tonight as none of them are representing the current situation well. We also believe that there could be more widespread scattered pop-up showers than the model is able to resolve as well. That being said we believe that throughout the area expect anywhere from no rain to isolated pockets of 0.5-1.5 inches of rain with these scattered storms this evening.
How much rain we need in 1 hour to get flash flooding:
Model forecasted rainfall totals for this evening:
Model simulated radar through tomorrow morning: