This afternoon’s video:
Good afternoon. Overall, not a ton of change, but I do think the severe weather threat in Central/Eastern South Dakota could be a bit more scattered due to a cap preventing as much thunderstorm development. With that being said, storms that do form can easily have very large hail in South Dakota. Low level shear can allow for tornadoes to form in strong storms for Southern North Dakota and a line of storms will push a damaging wind threat through far southern counties in South Dakota and into Nebraska. Timing for development looks to be between 3-5 PM this afternoon with the threat of severe weather pushing east and diminishing overnight.
Thus, a severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for the Western Dakotas and this will likely be expanded to include much of the rest of the Dakotas. Note, we still believe the highest risk is for Central portions of the Dakotas, but a few strong/severe storms cannot be ruled out for the Western Dakotas.
Here’s a look at the NAM3 radar with this system and it shows the above thoughts very well and shows the potential for heavy rainfall in East North Dakota and Minnesota through tomorrow:
Here’s a look at the total rainfall from the NAM3 through this weekend and the WPC excessive rainfall outlooks:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out and have a great day!