500 Festival Forecast – 5/15/17 (Monday):
Synopsis: Good Monday morning! We weren’t sure whether a forecast was warranted for Saturday’s event this week, so we prepared an update just in case as there could be some inclement weather in the area. It’ll be a very complex week in regards to thunderstorm placement with southwest flow aloft, some locations will get in on the rains and some will not. Much is the same for the forecast on Saturday for the event, we have slight discrepancies amongst the data in regards to timing and rainfall placement. In many cases the GFS is too quick with its solution and slows down, we will just have to see how things pan out as the week unfolds. We’ve put together a video update to explain the risks…if you have any questions please don’t hesitate to reach out.
There is some energy present aloft along the warm front on the day on Saturday, which as we discussed in the video, is grounds for a scattered shower and t’storm threat at this time.
Confidence and Risk:
- Average confidence right now we will see temps hovering in the lower 80s for Saturday.
- Average confidence of winds veering from the northeast to southeast throughout the day at 5-10mph, gusting at times to 20mph.
- Below average confidence in the exact timing and details of the rain/storm chances on Saturday as models continue to differ.
Today’s Video (3 min):