Today’s video:
Observed rainfall overnight…obviously much higher than what we showed yesterday, we got the area right but this storm cluster overnight just did not want to move fast south and east, and as a result widespread 2.0-5.0″ have fallen locally; as noted below, a similar set-up looks to be on tap for today, unfortunately:
As shown in the video above, the ingredients suggested by models today look very close to yesterday, so we think basically after 2-4pm today storms can fire along a boundary from Ft. Wayne to Columbus to Dayton especially; strong to severe clusters with heavy rainfall (even times of flash flooding) are on the table:
Our favored total precipitation guidance is below mainly focusing on today…we circled an area where we feel the data is underdone and can easily see another 1.0-2.0″+ like we did overnight. We storms start to stall, given the elevated atmospheric moisture today, it won’t be hard to see localized 2.0-4.0″:
Week 2 percent of normal rainfall guidance suggests this active pattern does in fact continuing for most of Ohio into late May, given the latest signals for the southeast ridge to get nudged slightly further south, allowing for more moisture to flow over the top. There will be some dry/warm days in between the storms, but when the storms come they will pack above normal moisture:
Wind forecast over the next 4 days:
Temperature/precipitation over the next 10 days:
Toledo:
Columbus:
Cincinnati:
