Today’s Video:
Good Tuesday Morning everyone!
Rain/storms that developed overnight are now pushing through Eastern Minnesota and will weaken and exit the area by mid-day. This will allow for some dry time before additional showers and storms develop later today. We also have some light precipitation working into the Western Dakotas. This is heading into dry air, but a few spotty showers are possible.
We will have a break throughout the day today for much of the area, but a few pieces of energy will push through the Dakotas this afternoon. As of now it looks like the energy in North Dakota is fairly unorganized and weak, so thinking about ~20% coverage in the circled area at the most and with about a 30% risks for showers/storms in Southern South Dakota. However, chances increase this evening into tonight as a better organized line of storms begins to develop especially for Southern Minnesota. Scattered showers with about 50% coverage are likely throughout much of South Dakota this evening and into the early overnight hours. Southern Minnesota sees the best risks of heavy rain at times with strong storms possible. These waves will push east overnight with just some scattered lingering showers in Eastern South Dakota and West Minnesota tonight into early tomorrow morning.
It is certainly worth noting that a couple of storms in far Southeast Minnesota could be strong to severe later this evening and into tonight as we do have bit of instability favorable for producing strong storms. The main threats will be isolated large hail and strong wind gusts.
The storms could also take a bit of a west to east tendency which allow for favorable conditions for heavy rain and flooding risks late this evening into the overnight hours. This threat is not widespread but we will certainly need to watch out for this potential in SE Minnesota. The RPM shows this risk just east of SE Minnesota in Wisconsin, but current thinking is that it’s a bit too far southeast with the system.
Rain chances will not end tonight, we’ll likely see more rain shower risks especially later tomorrow and into Thursday for southern portions of the area:
Here’s a look at the total precipitation through Thursday. I think the RPM (left) does a good job at showing the potential pockets of heavier east of the area while the European does a better job at showing the potential lighter amounts throughout the area.
We are also watching a weak wave that could move through Saturday into Sunday. Not looking all that impressive at this point, but will need to be watched for some light rain accumulations:
Here’s a look at total precipitation from the Euro and German model over the next 7 days:
Temperatures will stay cooler on the north side of the front today, but warm up back into the 70s for the area by Friday!
We could see from frost/freeze risks in northern portions of the area the next few mornings:
Here’s a look at afternoon dew point temperatures the next few days:
We could have some gusty winds behind the fronts that pass the next few days. Here’s a look at the wind gusts and directions:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out and have a great day!