Today’s Video:
Good Monday morning everyone!
Showers have developed over portions of Minnesota this morning. We’ll likely see this continue east and eventually diminish into mid-day:
Models have not handled this wave of precipitation very well and kept most areas dry this morning. With the southwest flow aloft, models will continue to have a difficult time nailing down where showers and storms develop. The latest NAM3 is starting to pick up on the risks for showers developing into portions of North Dakota and Northern Minnesota with a line of strong to severe storms possible in Eastern South Dakota and Southwest Minnesota. I do think that gusty winds and isolated bouts of large hail are possible given cool temperatures and dry conditions in the mid-levels of the atmosphere.
Given the current dynamics, here is the area that likely has the best shot at storm development and the purple area likely has the best shot at storms capable of producing isolated large hail and gusty winds.
Very warm temperatures are likely today for most of South Dakota and Minnesota and Eastern North Dakota ahead of the front. The front will slowly push through the area this week and cooler temperatures will develop especially in northern portions of the Northern Plains. Cannot rule out some below freezing temperatures for overnight lows the next few days.
The front will linger in Southern Minnesota tomorrow and allow additional storms to develop with the potential of gusty winds and small hail in storm later tomorrow evening and into tomorrow night.
However, we’ll still have southwest flow aloft especially in extreme southern portions of the area Wednesday and Thursday. This likely produces additional rain showers.
As far as total rainfall, it will be difficult to pinpoint amounts given the scattered nature of showers and storms at times, but we certainly would focus on East North Dakota and Northern Minnesota where rain develops around an area of low pressure and in far southern South Dakota and Minnesota where southwest flow dominates. With that being said, though the European handles the overall pattern well, it could certainly be missing out on convective precipitation in portions of Eastern and Southern/Central Minnesota today, so pockets of heavier amounts are possible.
Overall the pattern supports dreary conditions and mostly cloudy skies over the next 4 days:
We will continue to see gusty winds along the front the next couple of days, especially today where gusts up the 35 MPH are possible in Southern Minnesota where wind advisories are in effect.
Here’s a look at total precipitation from the European model over the next 7 days!
If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!