Video (6:00):
Good Wednesday Morning everyone!
A mix of light snow, rain and freezing rain has broken out for portions of the region this morning. A light glaze of ice is possible, especially on elevated surfaces, but the biggest impacts will come from heavier snow that develops later today:
Here’s a look at the simulated radar for this system. Snow will really pick up this afternoon in North Dakota and head into Northern Minnesota later this evening around 7-8 PM. Most snow likely exits North Dakota overnight tonight and the heaviest will exit Minnesota tomorrow moring with just some lingering snow and pockets of freezing drizzle for northern portions of the region. Rain showers are likely for South Dakota and the southern 2/3rds of Minnesota – can’t even rule out a few rumbles of thunder especially in southern areas tonight.
Given where the strongest vertical motion from the front is located and below freezing temperatures, here is where we expect to have the best chance of 1-3″ of snow:
Winter Storm Watches are already in effect for portions of the Western Dakotas. These will likely be expanded east and given strong winds and heavy snow, cannot rule out Blizzard watches being issued.
Rain likely breaks out for portions of the Dakotas late tomorrow and snow will pick up overnight. Right now, it looks like the brunt of this snow storm will be mid-day Friday into Saturday night. Wind gusts of 35-45 MPH are on the table given the strong low pressure system.
Snow totals could be robust with amounts of more than 12″ in spots. In fact, data is hinting at isolated amounts of 2 feet in South Dakota. The GFS has had a fairly good handle on the intensity of the system and isn’t quite as widespread on the 12″+ totals, but still puts down a nice swatch of 12-20″ over much of Southeast South Dakota and Central/Southern Minnesota. The European, Canadian and the NAM all have widespread totals of 10-24″ for almost the entire state of South Dakota. Given the dynamics of this system, snow that heavy cannot be ruled out, but the latest EPS is not as keen on widespread 12″+ totals. We’ll carefully watch trends and try to narrow down a more specific area for the heaviest totals as higher resolution data gets into range.
Before this snow storm, temperatures will be quite nice for portions of South Dakota over the next two days. Here’s a look at high temperatures over the next 4 days.
Here’s a look at cloud cover over the next few days.
Here’s a look at wind gusts and wind directions over the next several days:
If you have any questions, do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!