Happy Easter Morning! Overall, we have an active few days with rain/snow chances tonight and rain/storm risks on Tuesday. Monday overall looks like a nice day with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
As of now, the precipitation main impacts look to come just after the game today, but storms could create problems for the game on Tuesday evening.
It will be a close call this evening with rain and the end of the game. At this time we expect rain to pick up around 9PM EST, which, barring extra-innings, should allow the game to proceed with dry conditions. Initially, dry air looks to eat any potential precipitation that could fall before 9 PM, but rain is certainly right on the doorstep after 8PM. Note that the risk is certainly there for the system to speed up and arrive an hour or so earlier and it’s something we’ll watch, but given current guidance and initial dry air, we don’t see a reason to deviate from a 9PM EST start time for precipitation chances.
Winds will be much lighter today, generally light around 5 MPH with gusts up to 10 MPH from the north throughout the game. As precipitation begins to move in later in the evening around 9PM, wind gusts of up to 20 MPH are possible.
Some morning sun will give way to increasing clouds in the mid-afternoon hours, likely leading to mostly cloudy skies throughout the entire game today. These will be mid-upper level clouds, so the sun could show through the clouds at times, but for the most part, clouds will dominate the skies. Temperatures will reach close to 50 in the early afternoon, but as our system begins to develop to the west, temperatures begin to drop around game time – likely to around 49F. Temperatures will continue to fall throughout the duration of the game to the the mid-low 40s by the end of the game. Temperatures drop below freezing overnight.
The rain likely changes over to snow at times tonight for the the ball park. Our current thinking puts Cincinnati right on the edge of the less than 1″ and 1-2″, a slight shift south could certainly bring Cincinnati at higher risk for more accumulating snow. Right now, around an 1″ seems like a safe bet, but given marginal temperatures most accumulation is likely limited to grassy areas. The latest hi-res NAM shows this threat very well with a sharp cutoff right through Cincinnati.
Rain/snow likely moves out of the Cincinnati metro area a little after 2AM EST. With temperatures dropping below freezing, the risk for a refreeze of wet roadways is possible into tomorrow morning.
Overall precipitation totals will be near 0.3″ by tomorrow morning:
Some lingering moisture could allow for drizzle/mist risks to continue into the early morning hours, but drier air should work in for the afternoon. This moisture will likely allow for some low level clouds to stick around into the afternoon, but some sun is certainly possible at times. Better risks for partly cloudy skies will be in the late afternoon/early evening hours, but with high pressure, the area should stay dry for tomorrow’s game against the Cubs. Temperatures will like get into the lower 50s by game time and more light winds are likely from the southeast tomorrow.
Dry conditions won’t continue because our next system works in as we head into Tuesday. Heavy showers that could produce gusty winds, downpours and even some thunder will work through overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Precipitation totals up to a 0.2″ are possible in the morning.
Models agree on potential dry time for the afternoon, but another line of showers/storms likely develops in the evening hours, potential sometime during the game on Tuesday evening. Temperatures will be very warm to start the game – near 70F! Winds will be quite gusty from the SW at up to 35MPH at times with sustained winds of 10-20 MPH.
It’s worth noting that some of the storms within this line could be quite strong with gusty winds and lightning. Latest data has sped up this system to impact the game on Tuesday evening. The NAM has showers and storms moving in between 7 and 8 PM EST and the Euro has showers and storms increasing between 8PM and 11PM EST – so impacts on the game are looking increasingly likely. It is worth noting that because this could be a line of storms, they could move in and out fairly quickly (like the NAM shows above) as cooler and drier air works in. This does allow for the potential for the game to get restarted if a delay becomes necessary. Precipitation totals could certainly exceed a half an inch between the Tuesday morning showers to the evening storms.
We’ll of course update on the timing of these showers/storms as they will could have a big impact on the game Tuesday night. Have a great Easter Sunday!