Good afternoon everyone! Here are the latest weather alerts in effect across the region: Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for a large portion of NE with new additions in northern IA, largely in part due to the freezing drizzle/rain risk as we head into the overnight. Also, Wind Advisories have been issued extending from central KS through central/northeastern MO as enhanced wind gusts with this strengthening storm system is expected Saturday into the overnight.
With some decent warm air advection out ahead of our incoming storm system and an overall cooler ground, watch for areas of dense fog to develop across KS, NE and western IA tonight into Saturday morning.. This fog can create some slick spots, particularly in NE and western IA where temperatures will be at or below freezing. Couple this with the likelihood for freezing drizzle in NE overhead and it will likely make for a mess of road conditions during this time.
Simulated radar through 1am CDT Sunday night: Watch for freezing rain/drizzle to develop and work across central NE as the evening progresses while also mixing with snow showers across the NE Panhandle. This area of freezing drizzle/rain will lift into northeastern NE late tonight with areas of showers and a few storms get going in the eastern half of KS into southeastern NE. Precipitation chances will begin to roll into MO and IA after 2am CST. The bulk of the precipitation will progress across MO and IA through the morning hours Saturday, but watch for a corridor of freezing rain on the precipitation shield’s northeastern periphery in northern that could make for a slipper commute (though surfaces temperatures will be marginal). Some heavy, wet snow will mix in across northern NE during the day Saturday, but also into far northern IA (including Mason City and Spencer) mid-afternoon Saturday into the overnight hours. On the opposite spectrum, there will be the risk for a few marginally strong storms during the early-mid morning hours Saturday in far southern MO, but the main action will come generally after 10am CST through about 5pm CST across the southern tier of MO where severe storms are on the table, including the threat for damaging winds, a few tornadoes and hail. The area of greatest concern is located within the circled region in the second image as instability will be greatest coupled with sufficient wind energy aloft. This is something to definitely stay aware of. Otherwise, most of the precipitation will be exiting the region Saturday evening, though some backside snow shower action will remain a threat in far northern IA through the overnight before coming to an end early Sunday morning.
This system will be strengthening as it lifts northeastward across the region, resulting in the tightening of isobars (or lines of equal pressure) and the enhancement of wind speeds. Winds will gradually build from west to east across the region tonight but especially during the day Saturday with many areas likely gusting commonly between 30-45mph (isolated higher gusts). The threat will persist Saturday night before mostly shifting northeastward Sunday where gusts will still approach 40mph at times, though will be weakening heading into the afternoon/evening hours. Watch for areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility in the areas that pick up snow in NE and far northern IA given these strong wind gusts.
Snowfall forecast through Saturday night: The big-hitting snow still resides north of the forecast area into the Northern Plains, but snow amounts of 3-5″ are expected to sink as far south as far north-central NE and the MN/IA border. A 1-3″ band extends just south of those areas to encompass as far south as North Platte, NE and Mason City, IA. Amounts steadily decrease the further south you go from there with most in southeastern NE, southern IA and all of KS/MO receiving no snow from this system.
Total ice accretion through Saturday evening: A glaze of ice generally under 0.1″ is expected across central and northern NE as well as northern IA. While very localized we can’t rule out a few areas, particularly in central/northern NE, where greater than 0.1″ of ice accretion will occur.
Total precipitation through Sunday reveals the heaviest amounts residing in MO and IA and steadily leveling off the further west you head across NE and KS. Given the fast-paced nature of the system, amounts won’t be too overly heavy, but watch for rainfall of 0.5-1″ in IA and NE. Locally more than 1″ of precipitation will be possible across these states, but especially in southeastern MO where any storms develop and track in the early-mid afternoon.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!