Good afternoon! Thanks for checking out today’s hazardous weather blog, brought to you by Mr. Quik Home Services out of Indianapolis! You can rely on Mr. Quik’s team of professionals for all your heating, cooling, plumbing, and electrical needs in your home! With the pattern about to get more active, it would be a great time to get your sump pump inspected, or possibly get a new one installed for the spring season! Call Mr. Quik at 317-468-9170. Read more about it at mrquikhomeservices.com. Be sure to “LIKE” Mr. Quik on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MisterQuik/.
March is off to the 2nd coldest start on record in much of the Ag Belt and the 6th coldest here in Central Indiana!
A round of light snow will work east from the central Plains through the Ohio Valley tonight into Friday:
A couple storm systems in the cards from this weekend through next week. These will be big-hitting winter storms for portions of the Plains, with these storms ushering in much deserved warmer out out ahead of them east and south. Overall storm track through next week:
The data is spitting out CRAZY snow amounts in the northern Plains over the next 10 days:
The central U.S. storm track will promote a warmer than normal period for the eastern U.S. over the next week:
After the briefly warmer east and active pattern into mid-month, a pattern change is expected the third week of March bringing the return of cold across the central and eastern U.S. as a +PNA ridge develops along the west coast. This would also be a much drier pattern.
What about April?? We share our thoughts in our long-range reports. We’re currently working on our forecast for the upcoming summer, and subscribers can get access to our long-range forecasts out to 6 months! One thing for sure, we remain in an El Nino pattern for the upcoming summer. If you were to take a simple approach by looking at El Nino summers, you come out to an overall cooler look with “normal” precipitation.
Looking at the CFS (which has been handling the pattern well) is showing a slightly warmer and wet look for summer:
It’s also interesting to note that research concerning El Nino years shows a lower frequency of tornadoes and hailstorms compared to La Nina years.
Looking at trends in sea-surface temperatures, waters have been getting quite toasty in the central equatorial Pacific over the past few weeks. Check out this trend in sea-surface temperatures since early January:
Despite El Nino, it’s interesting to note how atypical February was of a typical El Nino. In fact, it was basically the OPPOSITE of what you typically see with an El Nino. Goes to show that it’s not just about waters in the Pacific, El Nino has not been coupled with the atmosphere much of the winter. Convection in the Pacific was focused in the western Pacific near Australia the first half of February, more typical of La Nina, associated with MJO (areas of upward motion in the Pacific) in phases 6 &7 which are warmer phases for the eastern U.S. We also saw a retracted Pacific jet. This retraction shifted the EPO/PNA ridge west towards the Aleutians of Alaska and allowed a cold trough over the western U.S., or -PNA. This in turn allowed for a warmer pattern in the eastern U.S. (if there is a trough in one area, there will be a ridge in another). Check out the upper-level pattern averaged out in February 2019:
You can clearly see that southwest flow which produced a VERY active pattern. Parts of the Tennessee Valley were over 8″ above normal in February precipitation:
With spring season approaching and many outdoor events, you want to make sure have a reliable weather source. Many people ignore the most important factor of an outdoor event, the weather! So how can we help? Here are a few highlights of how we can make your job much easier and in the end, allow you to make reasonable decisions and not waste money:
Why would I pay for a weather service when I can get free weather on my phone? Relying on free weather information such as free, automated weather apps is not practical if you want to run a successful business. They are solely based on raw computer model output with zero human element. These free apps also have a tendency to send you erroneous alerts about rain or snow coming, even when there isn’t a cloud in the sky! I can’t count with my own fingers how many times I get incorrect snow/rain alerts to my phone. I have more examples than this picture below, but I think you get the point.
What our service can provide you:
24/7 on-call meteorologist support: This is the HUGE benefit of our service!! Having your own personal meteorologists to contact 24/7 is key for sound business decisions whether it’s 3pm or 3am. We alway have a meteorologist on duty to get in immediate touch with! We truly enjoy communicating with our clients whether it’s a high-risk weather event or sunny and 75! We can assist you in every weather situation Mother Nature can bring us. The goal of this is to make your job easier! Stop stressing over a thunderstorm popping up on radar during your event. Have us on-call to tell you what to expect throughout the event.
Accuracy: We HAVE to do our very best to get every detail in a forecast correct. Every member of our team has a keen knowledge of weather patterns in the Ohio Valley. Each storm presents its own challenges. We strive to get every detail in a forecast correct from snow and ice accumulations down to freezing drizzle and fog, and of course, severe storms. We wouldn’t have a business if we didn’t hold ourselves accountable for getting the forecast correct. Knowing the fine-details in the forecast can be the difference between making $5000 or losing $5000. The time has come to quit guessing which local television/radio/app forecast is correct and waiting to check the latest local television forecast. This can take too much time and cause frustration. Think of it this way, it would be wiser to spend $1500 now on a weather service like ours than to lose $50,000 later because you were trying to guess the outcome.
We can also set-up a Thor Guard lightning prediction system at your event. This is better than most systems as this predicts conditions favorable for a lightning strike to alert you ahead of time, instead of other systems that alert you for a lightning strike that has already occurred.
You can inquire at bamwx.com/contact-us or [email protected].
For weather enthusiasts, we also offer a $50 per year Midwest Extreme Weather subscription to keep you updated during active weather in the Midwest!!
