Good afternoon everyone! A corridor of lighter snows continues to impact locations from northwestern to southeastern IA as well as far northeastern MO as of 3:15pm CST. The heaviest of the snow has likely occurred to this point, with this narrow band of snow slowing winding down over the next several hours. However, scattered snow chances will remain a possibility in IA and even far northeastern MO overnight, but will stay rather light from here on out.
Simulated radar through 9am CST Friday: The narrow corridor of snow stretching from northwestern to southeastern IA will slowly wind down through the next several hours with scattered snow chances remaining a possibility in far northeastern NE this evening, but more across IA and far northeastern MO through the overnight hours. Light precipitation will gain coverage in central/southern MO through the evening into the overnight as well and should remain mostly as rain with temperatures generally above freezing. Some areas in south-central/southeastern MO can still remain at freezing, so some light freezing rain with a light glaze of ice will be possible. A very minimal wave will progress across KS late in the evening through early overnight and bring an isolated chance for freezing drizzle. By the end of this loop (9am CST), watch for only remaining flurries in IA and light showers in far southern MO.
Here’s a look at additional snowfall through 9am CST Friday: At this point in time, additional accumulations should stay under 1″ from northwestern to southeastern IA and less than 0.5″ in northern IA, far northeastern NE and far northeastern MO.
There will be the risk for areas of freezing fog to develop across the western areas (KS and NE) tonight into Friday morning that will likely result in some slick spots where it develops during this time. Temperatures will be well below freezing, adding to the risk for these potential slick spots. Most of the fog should dissipate as the morning progresses. However, another round of potential fog will be possible as the next system gets going Friday night.
Our next system of concern will lift in from the Rockies late Friday evening and overspread the region as the night progresses. This disturbance will bring the potential for a wintry mix across the northwestern half of NE Friday night, then northern NE during the day Saturday. Further south, warmer air will keep the precipitation type as liquid and allow for showers and storms, especially over far eastern KS, MO and southern IA Saturday morning and early afternoon. There will be enough CAPE (or instability) with this system across MO and coupled with sufficient wind energy in the region, could result in some strong to severe storms as the wave of rain works through. The main threat with these storms would be damaging winds mixing down to the surface, but we can’t rule out hail and/or an isolated tornado. This storm system will be rather quick-moving, so watch for the bulk of the precipitation to be exiting NE and KS by 3pm CST, MO Saturday evening and IA by midnight Saturday night. However, some backside snow showers may clip the far northern areas Saturday night before all of this activity pulls out early Sunday morning.
This system will be strengthening as it lifts northeastward across the region, resulting in the tightening of isobars (or lines of equal pressure) and the enhancement of wind speeds. Winds will gradually build from west to east across the region Friday night but especially during the day Saturday with many areas likely gusting 35-45mph commonly. The threat will persist Saturday night before mostly shifting northeastward Sunday where gusts will still approach 35-40mph, though will be weakening Sunday night. Watch for areas of blowing/drifting snow in the areas that pick up snow in NE and far northern IA given these strong wind gusts.
Here’s an updated look on total snowfall from Friday night through Saturday night: Current consensus keeps the heavier snows along the northern fringes of the forecast area with enhanced snowfall amounts even further north into the Northern Plains. Regardless, watch for a band of 5-8″ to stretch downwards northwest of the O’Neil area (3-5″ in O’Neil) while 1-3″ will extend downwards towards central NE, including North Platte and Mason City, IA (amounts increasing further north). Southeastern NE, southern IA and the vast majority of KS and MO will receive no snow from this system.
Total precipitation through Sunday reveals the heaviest precipitation amounts residing in IA and MO and steadily leveling off the further west you head across NE and KS. Given the quick-paced nature of the system, amounts won’t be particularly heavy, but watch for rainfall of ~1″ in IA and between 0.5-1″ for most in MO.
Even after this weekend’s system passes through, we’ll watch for a very favored storm track across the region heading into mid-March where snow is likely to the north and west of the low pressure system and then rain/storms out ahead. The storm system mid-next week (during this timeframe) will follow an eerily similar track to this weekend’s storm. Be sure to keep up-to-date on our updates as an active pattern continues for the region!
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your day!