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Significant severe weather took place in the Deep South Sunday, with the first EF-4 tornado to touchdown in nearly 2 years for the U.S.! 23 deaths occurred in Lee county, Alabama. This is more than double the deaths in all of 2018 from tornadoes. Winds were estimated of 170 mph. The tornado was on the ground for 26 miles, and nearly 1 mile wide. Here are raw aerial views of the destruction (from WGCL Atlanta):
Storm reports from Sunday, with the main highlight being the Lee county, Alabama tornado (near Auburn):
Looking further at the set-up, it’s easy to see that the environment was favorable for tornadoes. You had a sharp warm front draped over south-central Alabama, with 40s north and 70s south. This front enhanced low-level helicity, and provided a focus for thunderstorm development and rotating storms.. The amount of turning with height was very impressive, and was a clue that tornadoes would be a threat. The upper-level shear was strong enough to sustain the thunderstorms for long periods of time. Why is this important? When shear is weak, the downdraft of a storm will choke off the updraft and the storm weakens. If shear is enough, it will tilt the storms updraft and allow the downdraft to not impede it, which means it can go on for longer periods of time. This is why during typical summer “pop-up” storms, they develop and rain out quickly, while on a. severe weather day these storms can go on for hours.
This tornado happened in the middle of the day, and dire alerts were issued well ahead of time. However, the tornado was just too much as it wiped homes right off their foundation. This area is no stranger to major tornadoes in the late winter and spring. Many of you likely remember the super tornado outbreak of April 27, 2011. In Alabama ALONE, 252 people lost their lives that day with 62 tornadoes touching down in the state. It caught many by surprise that so many deaths occurred in today’s day and age when there are so many ways to receive warnings. So what can be done to lessen the number of fatalities? It is a blessing that we have so many ways to receive warnings, but it doesn’t matter if we don’t take them seriously. False alarm ratios are much higher than they need to be for tornado warnings. The problem is, it’s not as simple as only issuing warnings for bigger tornadoes, or set-ups where stronger tornadoes are likely. 90% of tornadoes in the U.S. are EF-0 TO EF-1. Also, KNOW if you are in the warning. These warnings are based on polygons and not whole counties. Our local officials could help by only sounding sirens in parts of a county that are actually in the warning. Also, we need to stop sounding them just because an untrained eye thinks there is a tornado. A combination of sounding sirens in areas not under a warning and sounding them for a non-warning situation leaves people ignoring sirens. As meteorologists this stuff drives us insane. I think the main point here is to stop relying on sirens all together. This is outdated technology only meant to be heard outdoors. A weather radio is always recommended, but you can get by just fine by getting alerts on your phone and heeding the warnings. Also, have proper items in your severe weather kit! If these folks in the tornado path would have had a helmet nearby, or pillows to put over their heads, they would of likely survived. I think helmets are VERY important to have in a disaster kit, also have a whistle to signal for help. You and your family should take this seriously and practice your severe weather plan!
Here in the Ohio Valley, we have also had our share of severe weather during this time of year. Just two years ago, tornadoes impacted the region February 28-March 1, 2017. This outbreak produced 72 tornadoes in the central and eastern U.S., with 4 fatalities. Of note was a very long track supercell from Missouri to Indiana, with nearly the same path and characteristics as the famed Tri-State tornado of March 18, 1925. Even more crazy, there was a home destroyed by the 1925 tornado that was destroyed again by the 2017 tornado. What are the odds!!! Here are a couple graphics showing the path of this tornado:
That very same storm went over my grandparents home in southern Indiana, thankfully the tornado lifted before reaching there, but still produced a lot of wind damage:
And of course, we remember the horrific tornado outbreak of March 2, 2012 from the Ohio Valley to the Deep South. This produced 70 tornadoes, which was a new record for a continuous outbreak in March. Sadly, 41 people lost their lives.
Of note was the EF-4 tornado that ripped through the heart of Henryville, Indiana. Check out this dramatic footage of the tornado. Do NOT be this guy, he clearly should not of been filming and should have been seeking shelter! A great video isn’t worth your life. ** This video does have language.**
Here’s a look at tornado climatology from now through July. Notice things peak in May and June across the Midwest, then shifts north as the summer goes on. Look at the southern Plains in April and May!! For the South, tornadic activity becomes much less frequent heading into May and the summer, due to the lack of upper-level winds as the jet stream on average shifts north into Canada.
Looking ahead, there is a threat of severe storms as far north as the Missouri Valley, and especially across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Analog data is all over this threat:
Another threat may present itself in a similar area mid-next week. Our initial area for severe weather set-ups this spring seems to be working well so far. This was based on analog research.
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Why would I pay for a weather service when I can get free weather on my phone? Relying on free weather information such as free, automated weather apps is not practical if you want to run a successful business. They are solely based on raw computer model output with zero human element. These free apps also have a tendency to send you erroneous alerts about rain or snow coming, even when there isn’t a cloud in the sky! I can’t count with my own fingers how many times I get incorrect snow/rain alerts to my phone. I have more examples than this picture below, but I think you get the point.
What our service can provide you:
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You can inquire at bamwx.com/contact-us or [email protected].
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