Good afternoon everyone! Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect across ND, northern SD and the far western portions of MN, generally for blowing/drifting snow in the region but also for some scattered light snow accumulations from the snow dropping southward through the nighttime hours. The Wind Chill Advisories/Warnings that had been in effect this morning have been allowed to expire. However, continue to expect additional cold mornings coming up, just not to the extent we observed earlier this morning.
There is some weak upper-level energy dropping southward across ND and northern MN as of 2:45pm CST, and this is leading to scattered flurries/snow showers across these parts. This wave of energy will quickly work southeastward through the evening into tonight and bring additional chances of flurries/snow showers to locations further southeast into northeastern SD and the remainder of MN. Watch for this activity to lose coverage as the night drags on however, as forcing weakens and by Tuesday morning, only isolated patches will remain.
Simulated radar through 9am CST Tuesday: Scattered flurries/snow showers continue the dive southward through the evening hours, encompassing additional areas (from their ND and northern MN locations) of northeastern SD and southern MN. By late evening, the scattered snow coverage will be at its greatest extent across the central and northeastern sections of the region. After midnight the lessening coverage will be more pronounced and by the end of this loop a few isolated patches of flurries will be possible in northern MN.
Additional snowfall through Tuesday morning: Most locations will generally pick up a coating to 0.5″ of snow, but locally higher amounts approaching 1″ will be possible within the aforementioned areas of ND, northeastern SD and a majority of MN. Given the scattered nature of the snow, a few areas may not receive any accumulation. Regardless, reduced visibilities will be a problem within any of these snow showers as winds will gust 30-45mph commonly, especially in the Dakotas, resulting in blowing/drifting snow and leading to hazardous travel.
We also note some weak energy streaming into the northeastern areas late Tuesday into the overnight that will bring additional chances of flurries and light snow showers (northeastern ND into northern/eastern MN). The forcing with this wave will also quickly lift out, so coverage will be dwindling during the morning hours Wednesday with perhaps a few lingering flurries in northern MN by the noon hour. Snow accumulations will be even less impressive with this weak pulse of energy and should stay 0.5″ or less for virtually all areas impacted; Likely just enough to coat grass and make pavement slick.
An upper-level trough remaining positioned across the region and into southeastern Canada is allowing for the cold to hang around. Temperatures will be able to climb into the single digits Tuesday and Wednesday with perhaps some areas even warming into the teens for highs. However, wind chills will stay on the very cold side, and dipping towards -20ºF Tuesday and Wednesday morning for a majority of the Northern Plains.
After these two minimal snow risks pass through the region, our focus will then turn towards a more pronounced snowmaker in the form of a clipper system. Current indications point towards this wave impacting the southwestern areas this time around Wednesday night into Thursday and keeping most of ND and MN dry (though far southwestern MN may get clipped). There has been a slight trend to the north since this morning’s update, so it’s something to keep watching as this trend may continue. It will depend on the strength of the high pressure system directly northeast of this disturbance as a stronger high may suppress it back to the south. Only time will tell so definitely stay tuned to future updates!
Overall, most model data is in fairly good agreement regarding the orientation of this wave (WNW to ESE) across SD. Shown below are four different models and their depiction of snowfall for this event. Please keep in mind that the snow shown to the northeast will have already fallen by the start of this storm and that this is not an official forecast. Taking a look at the new guidance, one will find slight northerly ticks in the snow field with the potential for southern SD to receive a general 3-6″ of snow (amounts quickly lessen further north). Given this event is three days out, this is subject to change so definitely check back! The GDPS or Canadian Model is the furthest south solution, but it also has been struggling recently. At this time we still favor the more robust GFS solution given an upper-level jet streak and recent model performance (currently beating out the ECMWF).
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!