Good Wednesday afternoon! Just wanted to provide a quick update for you guys regarding precipitation risks through the weekend. Virtually sunny skies will remain today, but an increase in clouds tonight are expected that will lead to our first batch of spotty shower chances during the morning hours Thursday. A weakening pulse from the west will bring the risk for a few spotty rain showers to the Cincinnati area mainly from 9am-12pm EDT before the wave continues eastward and fades. As stated from this morning, the lower-levels of the atmosphere will be dry, so any precipitation will be battling this, resulting in the precipitation remaining spotty. After that, the rest of the day will generally remain dry (can’t rule out an additional stray shower) but the better forcing for these will reside north of the metro area, so the home opener should progress with minimal issues (besides a few breezes to 20-25mph). Simulated radar from 5am-8pm EDT Thursday:
Simulated radar from 8pm EDT Thursday through 8pm EDT Friday: Precipitation chances aren’t done from there, and in fact will become more likely as we head towards the weekend. An additional wave of light-moderate rain (can’t rule out a few rumbles of thunder) progressing across IN will impact the city of Cincinnati late Thursday night (mainly after 4am EDT Fri) that persists well into the morning hours Friday, but becoming more scattered by late morning and remaining isolated in nature through the remainder of the daylight hours. Once again, a few breezes will approach 20-25mph.
A quasi-stationary boundary will be in place across the Ohio Valley Friday night into Saturday and will keep scattered shower risks around into Friday night, though the best focus will reside closer to the boundary north of Cincinnati. Current trends keep the bulk of the rain north and west of the city as the sun rises Saturday, but will be quickly followed by widespread showers and storms that can be heavy at times by the noon hour that continues during the remainder of the daylight hours into Saturday night. The expectation is that this will have large impacts on Saturday’s 2:10pm EDT first pitch and that dry time will be unlikely. With an increasing pressure gradient will come winds gusting upwards of 25-35mph. The cold front progresses east late Saturday night with colder air funneling in, so the precipitation will be lifting out west to east and likely ends as a mix of rain/snow showers early in the morning Sunday, then drying out as the morning progresses with very minimal impacts still expected for Sunday’s game. Dry weather is anticipated Monday through Wednesday with a wave remaining just southeast of the area.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days: Model guidance this afternoon has come in heavier with the rains for the early weekend and the 1-2″ of rain stated from this morning’s update is even more supported. The models that hinted at any northwest aspects to this rain have largely shifted back towards the south. Again, the bulk of this precipitation will come Thursday night through Saturday night, especially Saturday into the overnight. Definitely expect major implications to Saturday’s game with heavier showers and storms expected.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!