Good morning everyone! The theme of fog to start off our morning’s continues across portions of the Northern Plains this morning. Areas of freezing fog have been noted across west-central MN with other patches of fog being observed across portions of the Dakotas (especially west) as well. Lower visibilities will be common over the next few hours at least with some slick spots on the roadways possible given temperatures below freezing in a few areas still. Heading into the early afternoon, the vast majority of the fog should begin to clear up.
Dense Fog Advisories remain in effect across portions of west-central MN as well as the western Dakotas for the lower visibilities commonly found in these areas this morning. Also, many areas are still combating flooding leftover from heavy rains/snow from a week and a half ago and the continuous snowmelt. Warmer temperatures are on the horizon with additional rain opportunities, which will likely exacerbate some of the ongoing issues. As a reminder, Flood Warnings remain in effect along various tributaries in SD and southern MN. We’ll likely continue to deal with flooding issues into April also as the snow melts from the warming temperatures coupled with additional precipitation chances.
There are some light showers being noted across the far southern portions of MN and far southeastern SD as of 10:00am CDT which will likely be a threat through the early afternoon. Most of the region will stay dry today, but we are watching a weak pulse of scattered energy that will lift into the western Dakotas late tonight through the day Monday, leading to scattered snow showers in these areas that can mix with rain and even freezing rain at times as temperatures rise.
Simulated radar through 7pm CDT Monday: Widely scattered light showers in far southern MN this morning will gradually diminish and/or shift southeastward through mid-afternoon. A few leftover sprinkles will be possible late afternoon over the southern portions of the region, but most of the region will remain dry. Increasing light shower chances are likely this evening into the early overnight across southwestern SD. There is a weak “arctic” front that will drop southward through the day today, but it has trended much weaker over the last 24 hours and if anything, could lead to a few flurries in ND and northern MN. Additional upper-level energy as discussed before will progress into the western Dakotas tonight into the daytime Monday that will bring light snow chances (mixing with rain/freezing rain in southwestern SD). Watch for this wave to gradually lift eastward as Monday progresses, but will be encountering dry air and will fizzle as it does so with any remaining activity likely residing in central SD by the end of this loop.
We’re not finished talking about the fog threats over the next couple of days. However, tomorrow morning will likely have less fog to deal with and will be patchy in nature across SD. Higher risks for fog will develop Monday night into Tuesday morning across the western Dakotas. This is a result of increasing temperatures out ahead of a storm system that will lift into the Great Plains later in the week. Regardless, these warmer temperatures over remaining snowpack will be a key ingredient to fog development heading into mid-week.
A bullseye of energy (known as a vorticity max) will quickly drop southeastward Monday night across northern ND and continue to do so during the day Tuesday for eastern ND into central MN. A brief pulse of snow will likely accompany this shortwave for these locations before once again slowly fizzling across central MN due to dry air entrainment. However, it is important to point out that not all guidance brings this wave in, so it’s something to watch heading into tomorrow.
Simulated radar from 7pm CDT Monday through 4pm CDT Tuesday: Watch for a pulse of light snow to develop across north-central ND during the late evening hours Monday that shifts southeastward with time overnight across eastern ND. This wave will work into central MN during the morning hours Tuesday, but as it does so it will be weakening with potentially only a few remaining light rain showers possible Tuesday afternoon.
Total snowfall through Tuesday morning reveals very minor snow accumulations across the Dakotas. A majority of these areas will pick up less than 0.5″ of wet snow (some places none) while a few localized pockets approaching 1″ will be possible in far northwestern ND and far western SD.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days: There is a late week system that bears watching as it could put down heavier precipitation amounts, including snow. However, there has been a clear lack of consistency or agreement between the models regarding the evolution of the system. Right now the better chances for more widespread precipitation with that disturbance will come across southern MN with amounts remaining on the lighter side elsewhere for the week. The European model (not shown) is the most aggressive, but keeps most of the precipitation just south of the region. Expect more details to come as the event nears and models can hone in on a more confined solution and we can clear up some of the discrepancies. Regardless, drier trends would be welcomed news for those dealing with flooding.
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: Storm-induced warmth increasing mid-week ahead of late-week’s system will promote more rapid snowmelt across the Dakotas, causing additional concerns for elevated flooding risks in the area and downstream.
Here’s a look at wind gusts over the next four days:
Here’s a look at the high/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Fargo, Bismarck, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!