Good morning everyone! The disturbance that has been plaguing the region with cloud cover and rain chances since as early as Friday evening continues to spin across southeastern NE as of 8:30am CDT. Wrap-around rains are impacting portions of eastern NE while scattered showers are located further east across IA, northern MO and along the Mississippi River. This wave has been meandering over the northern portions of the region through the weekend, but will get picked up by the northern jet stream today and more quickly lift eastward out of the area tonight. In the meantime, watch for scattered rains to impact generally the eastern half of the region today with strong storm chances in southern/southeastern MO where some partial clearing and building instability will lead to the threat for some storms to become severe with damaging winds and hail the main threats.
The scattered rains that have lifted through the region this weekend haven’t been the most beneficial as there are still areas in eastern NE, IA and MO that are combating leftover flooding from previous events and the snowmelt from the Northern Plains. The leftover rain risks won’t be heavy (though some heavier pockets are possible more in southern MO with the storms), but it won’t help the ongoing flooding issues along the region’s rivers and tributaries. As a reminder, Flood Warnings remain in effect along most of the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers.
There is increasing instability within the warm sector of this system (ahead of the wave where temperatures are increasing) as some partial clearing will be likely in southern/southeastern MO. This is where the potential exists for developing scattered strong to severe storms mainly after 1pm CDT that gradually works eastward through the remainder of the afternoon and generally lifting out early overnight. As previously stated, the main threats with these storms will be damaging winds and large hail, though a couple isolated tornadoes will be possible given some veering winds with height (helps with rotation). Expect these storms to weaken into early night.
Simulated radar through 12am CDT tonight: Areas of showers working across far eastern MO will lift eastward over the next couple of hours and allow for some partial clearing to occur over southern/southeastern MO through the morning hours. Further north, wrap-around showers with perhaps a couple storms developing are expected to continue in southeastern NE through the morning hours before pushing more into southern IA and far northern MO during the afternoon and evening hours. Agitated convection will get going along a boundary draped in southern MO around 12pm CDT and spark showers and strong/severe storms quickly thereafter (mainly after 1pm CDT) that work eastward through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening across southern/southeastern MO. Areas further west will be mainly dry, but a few showers will be possible in the NE Panhandle today. By the end of this loop (12am CDT), the scattered storms in southeastern MO will be generally starting to lift out while a few wrap-around showers/storms will continue in northeastern MO.
Simulated radar from 12am CDT tonight through 1pm CDT Tuesday: Convection over the far eastern portions of the region (around the Mississippi River) will be sagging south and eastward overnight and quickly lifting out of the region. However, a few stray sprinkles/showers can’t be ruled out even into Monday morning. There is a weak wave off to the west that will bring widely scattered shower chances to the High Plains during the overnight that gradually weaken as they work eastward Monday morning. Most areas of the Central Plains will be dry Monday afternoon and onwards, but a few stray sprinkles will still remain a threat in NE.
Here’s a look at additional precipitation through tonight: At this point in time, most areas of NE and KS will remain on the drier side, though far eastern NE still needs to watch for additional light rain amounts from the wrap-around rains this morning as well as light rain chances in the far High Plains tonight. A general 0.05-0.2″ of liquid is likely in IA and northern MO with locally higher amounts where any storms can develop in southern IA this afternoon and evening. To the south in southern MO, the development of strong storms will lead to a general 0.2-0.75″ of rain, but heavier storms will lead to localized pockets of 1″+ of rain.
While the threat will remain isolated tonight into Monday morning, a few pockets of fog will be possible in NE, particularly northwestern NE. As Monday morning progresses, any fog present in the area will gradually dissipate, but watch for the redevelopment of fog Monday night into Tuesday morning across the High Plains.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days from four various numerical weather guidance: We’ll observe a bit of dry time for most areas Monday through Wednesday, which is definitely good news as we don’t need any additional rain over any flooded areas. However, a more potent storm system is on tap late in the work week into early next weekend which is expected to be more of a threat for heavier rain and the potential for backside wet snow. Even into today, models remain in considerable disagreement regarding the evolution of this upcoming system with the ECMWF model for example being the most robust solution as well as a tad further north. Expect more details to come as the event nears and models can hone in on a more confined solution and we can clear up some of the discrepancies.
High temperatures over the next four days:
Low temperatures over the next four mornings:
Wind forecast over the next four days: As the low pressure system works eastward today, a few breezes to 25mph will be possible. Winds will settle down later into Monday only to increase again to 25-30mph heading into Tuesday and Wednesday.
High/low temperatures over the next 10 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your weekend!